Curacao bid to became the smallest nation to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages as they battle Ivory Coast and Ecuador in the Group E finale.
The Caribbean nation bounced back from their 7-1 defeat to Germany by claiming a historic 0-0 draw with Ecuador, with goalkeeper Eloy Room producing a masterclass between the posts with a 15-save performance.
Curacao, led by veteran Dutch coach Dick Advocaat, play Ivory Coast in their final fixture and with their fate still in their hands. Germany, already through as group winners, will face Ecuador in their final match.
Here’s everything you need to know about Group E’s knockout round permutations:
What do Ivory Coast need to qualify?
Despite a late 2-1 defeat to Germany last time out, Ivory Coast are still in a good position: if they avoid defeat to Curacao, they will finish as group runners-up, regardless of Ecuador’s result against Germany.
If Ivory Coast lose to Curacao, they would be leapfrogged by the tiny island nation. If Ecuador then beat Germany, they would be out. But if Ecuador fail to win, Ivory Coast could still go through as one of the best third-placed sides. They would be left on three points, but with a negative goal difference.
What do Ecuador need to qualify?
A win against Germany is a must for Ecuador. The good news is Germany are already through as group winners, so may make wholesale changes. A draw, and therefore finishing on two points, would not be good enough to go through in third place. Even if Ivory Coast also win, Ecuador would likely get through in third place with a win by having four points.
What do Curacao need to qualify?
A victory against Ivory Coast would be enough for Curacao to qualify, regardless of results elsewhere and despite their goal difference (which took a huge hit by that 7-1 defeat to Germany). Even if Ecuador also win and beat Germany, Curacao would likely get through in third place by having four points. A draw would not be good enough.
Head-to-head prominence over goal difference
If teams finish on the same number of points their standing in the group will be determined by the head-to-head record against the nation they are level with. If one team tied on points with another has beaten them in the group stage, the winners will finish higher up the table.
Where multiple teams are level on points, a mini-league is created, removing the results against the remaining teams. Those tied teams are ranked by points won in the games involving each other, then by goal difference, followed by goals scored. If that does not split them, the next criteria is goal difference followed by goals scored for the group overall.
Any other tiebreakers?
If teams are still level on points following head-to-head results, goal difference and goals scored then the Team Conduct Score (TCS) comes into play. It is basically a fair play score and is rated based on the amount of cards a team has collected. Each team, including managers and backroom staff, started on zero and were deducted points throughout the group stage as follows:
- Yellow card -1
- Red card for two yellows -3
- Straight red card -4
- Yellow then straight red -5
The closer to zero, the better the score. If the teams are still level, whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June's published update will go through.
How are the top eight third place finishers determined?
The top eight third place finishers will be decided on which teams have accumulated the most points.
Should eight or more nations finish third with the same number of points, the nations who progress will then be determined by goal difference.
In all likelihood, teams that finish third with four points or higher will go through, the teams on three points will need the best possible goal difference to progress.
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