A home World Cup has carried the USMNT into the Round of 32, and beating Bosnia and Herzegovina would send them into the last 16 for only the second time since 2002.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side topped Group D with wins over Paraguay and Australia, then rested key players in a dead-rubber loss to Turkey. Now they meet Bosnia at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, with Christian Pulisic fit and the country gripped by a soccer frenzy like nothing that has come before.
The hosts are favorites. But if they slip up against a Bosnia team that already beat Qatar and drew with Canada, the fallout would reach well beyond one bad night. Here is what a defeat would actually cost.
What a loss to Bosnia would cost the USA
To reach the next round, the USA have to do something they have traditionally struggled with, beat European opposition. Their record against European sides is dire — ten straight defeats and only one win in their last 18 competitive meetings.
Most of those games came against the continent’s heavyweights, and Bosnia are not that.
If they fail, a Round of 32 exit pays roughly $12m, while reaching the last 16 is worth about $16m. Winning the whole thing banks $51m. That would make a huge difference in improving soccer infrastructure in line with the surging popularity of the sport.
Then there is the coach. According to The Athletic, Pochettino has a proposal to lead the USMNT through 2030 and has said he will decide his future only after this World Cup ends.
A deep run makes that an easy yes. An early exit to Bosnia would not force his hand overnight — but it would make both sides think twice about continuing forward.
As for the players, MLS resumes on July 17th, so the federation’s domestic-based players would get almost no rest before club duty picks back up.
American players based in Europe fall under the three-week holiday period FIFA agreed with player union FIFPRO in 2025, so they at least get a proper break.
The bigger picture is momentum. A tournament that has produced record ticket demand and rare mainstream buzz would lose its main storyline in an instant. For a sport still fighting for attention in the US, going out in the Round of 32 at a home World Cup would sting long after the prize money is counted.
Not to mention, it’s the USMNT’s best chance at a deep run, with the full support of a home setting a rare advantage in this competition.
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