METEOROLOGISTS around the world are predicting that a Super El Niño is imminent by mid-2026 and it could result in a temperature rise of over 2 C or 3 C in the Pacific Ocean. It not only impacts temperature but rainfall patterns as well. While the term “Super El Niño” is not officially used by the World Meteorological Organization, it has caught on with different analysts and media to indicate the above average rise in temperature. In the Philippines, the typical cyclical El Niño we’ve experienced was an effect of temperature rise only by 0.5 C above the historical average in the surface of the Pacific Ocean.
Super El Niño will affect countries and continents in different ways. El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia like the Philippines. While each El Niño is unique in how it forms and in its effects, the DOST-Pagasa has already raised the El Niño alert on April 22, 2026, citing a 79-percent chance of El Niño emerging in June-July-August of this year. Pagasa warned of an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country. But now that the southwest monsoon has officially begun, the Philippines may experience above-normal rainfall conditions over the western section of the country.
The onset of a stronger and longer El Niño this year brings another layer of vulnerability because the Philippines is already dealing with an energy and water emergency. The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries impacted by disruptions in the global oil supply due to the energy crisis in the Middle East. We meet 54 percent of our total energy demand through imports, of which 90 percent is sourced from the Persian Gulf. Any disruption in the Gulf supply routes or spikes in global oil prices immediately strains the Philippine economy.
A 2026 World Food Program report identifies how the global energy crisis affects household food security in the Philippines: 1) energy prices and subsidies; 2) remittances; and 3) trade and shipping. We have seen how the rise in energy costs fed immediately into transport, electricity, agriculture and market prices, eroding household purchasing power. Food production and transport costs increased because of the Philippines’ dependence on foreign oil resulting in inflation risks. In the second pathway, our economy relies heavily on remittances from overseas workers. Any disruption to these regular remittances could significantly impact household consumption. Lastly, the third pathway underscores the impact of rising freight rates and marine insurance costs around the Strait of Hormuz. For the Philippines, higher shipping costs translate into increased import expenses, slower delivery times, and greater vulnerability within already fragile supply chains. Beyond these three pathways, fertilizer costs have also risen significantly because of the Middle East crisis, something we’ve already been dealing with since the war in Ukraine.
In my own little ecosystem, we have been experiencing rotational brownouts and frequent water disruption of over 12 hours. Further complicating the situation and against the backdrop of the energy crisis, we are now facing the possibility of extreme heat, prolonged drought, and stronger typhoons due to Super El Niño.
The Philippines is no stranger to natural and climate-related disasters due to our geography as an archipelago framing the Pacific Ring of Fire. Our experience and preparedness in light of our vulnerability has been praised by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction at the 2024 Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, citing the Philippines’ people-centered approach as a “lighthouse” to the region and the world. UNDRR chief Kamal Kishore lauded our local governments’ preparation and immediate response to DRR aligned with support from a wide range of national government agencies.
The anticipation and preparation for Super El Niño by our national and local governments may help soften the blow of these overlapping crises. The government has been responding and reacting to the ongoing energy crisis by declaring a State of National Energy Emergency in March 2026 which activated committees to secure fuel imports and conserve energy, including a four-day workweek in some offices, and suspending excise taxes on LPG for three months. To face the forecasted El Niño, the government has a few measures in place such as the 2023 Roadmap to Address the Impact of Niño (RAIN) and a task force to coordinate efforts across agriculture, water, health and energy sectors to mitigate the impacts of the dry spell. The Department of Agriculture may distribute drought-resistant seeds and fertilizers. LGUs should be preparing for Super El Niño by promoting rainwater harvesting, repairing irrigation systems and deploying water augmentation pumps. Water service providers should activate conservation measures. Regional DRR councils should conduct pre-disaster risk assessments to prepare for heightened risks of fire. And let’s not forget the heat-related illnesses brought by rising temperatures.
There are several interventions that may be implemented by government. The attempts to reduce socioeconomic impacts of Super El Niño and the current energy crisis may be reactive and broad. What we lack in large flood control infrastructure, we can make up for in the tried and tested community-based disaster risk reduction and the resiliency of the Filipino. But with the media and the public’s focus on the heightened political conflicts, I wonder if we will be prepared and ready for what Super El Niño brings to our already energy, water and economically struggling communities.
