ALREADY buffeted by strong headwinds from the Gulf war, the Philippines faces a new and more severe threat that could have a devastating impact not only on the economy but on food supply, water sources and agricultural output as well.
Meteorologists are predicting a “super El Niño” event developing in the Pacific Ocean by late this year. The probability range is wide — from 33 percent by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to 100 percent by European Climate Experts (ECMWF).
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) puts the probability at 92 percent.
Super El Niños are rare, happening only when surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean breach 2.0 degrees Celsius.
There have been “strong” El Niños, but they did not break the 2 C threshold.
Only four Super El Niños have been documented: in 1877–1878, 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. Their effects, however, were felt across the planet.
All of them triggered disasters, from brutal droughts in Australia and heavy flooding in South America to massive forest fires in Indonesia.
In a brief this month, the World Food Program (WFP) outlined the combined impact of the global energy crisis and a severe El Niño on the Philippines.
The country’s economy has taken a beating from the continuing tensions in the Gulf region, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
The WFP said, “higher shipping costs translate into increased import expenses, slower delivery times, and greater vulnerability within already fragile supply chains.”
The possibility of a Super El Niño further complicates the situation, the United Nations agency said. “This climatic phenomenon may trigger droughts and prolonged dry spells in parts of the Philippines,” and could worsen the socio-economic challenges the country is already with.
Inflation, already at an alarming 4.1 percent in March, could surge further as the price of fuel, food and other key commodities continues to climb.
The peso has weakened further vis-à-vis the dollar, and because the Philippines is a net importer of goods, its diminished power “translates to costlier prices of items bought in the global markets like fuel, food, medicine. Increased prices of goods mean increased expenses for poor households.”
The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, as higher fuel, fertilizer and transport costs affect planting cycles and harvests.
As reservoirs dry up due to a lack of rainfall, the limited water supply for irrigation could shrink palay production below the government’s target of 20.3 million metric tons for the year, the WFP said.
A market analysis by Metrobank corroborates WFP’s dire outlook.
With no end in sight to the oil crisis, inflation could stay high, at an average of 6.3 percent this year, Metrobank said.
The country’s stockpile of imported rice could run thin as its traditional sources, Vietnam and Thailand, limit exports due to weather-related production issues.
“There is also the risk of renewed export curbs from India, the world’s largest rice exporter,” Metrobank added.
The government has repeatedly assured the public that it has activated preparedness measures ahead of the impending Super El Niño threat.
A Roadmap to Address the Impact of Niño (RAIN) has been in place since 2023, providing a structured response framework. The Department of Agriculture is preparing to distribute drought-resistant seeds and fertilizers to farmers, and local government units (LGUs) are deploying water augmentation pumps, promoting rainwater harvesting, and repairing irrigation systems.
To stabilize rice supply, the National Food Authority has been directed to build a 52-day inventory.
Additionally, the agriculture department is identifying vulnerable agricultural zones that need immediate attention.
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The government response may be comprehensive, but the WFP said some challenges still need addressing.
The country’s reliance on traditional energy sources exposes it “to geopolitical risks and potential supply instability, particularly given the volatility of global energy markets,” it said.
Also, the excise tax suspensions and subsidies “provide short-term relief but may strain fiscal resources if prolonged, raising questions about sustainability.”
Climate experts emphasize that predicting a Super El Niño event is still a complex, imprecise science, and that uncertainty remains high.
Still, we have to prepare for the worst, if we are to overcome the twin threats of extreme climate conditions and economic volatility.
