Voters in the north-west seat of Makerfield take to the polls today in a high stakes by-election which will decide the future of the Labour Party.
Andy Burnham is standing as the party’s candidate in the seat following the resignation of Josh Simons, who stood down to make way for him to stand in May.
The Greater Manchester mayor has made no secret of his ambition to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership – and therefore the job of prime minister – if he wins the seat.
Also in the running is Reform UK, which took the vast majority of Makerfield’s seats at the local elections in May. Its candidate is Robert Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor who has stood in the area before, whose candidacy has been marred in controversy over a series of unearthed misogynistic online posts.
The party, led by Nigel Farage is understood to be concerned about losing voters to Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which takes a harder right-wing stance on issues such as migration.
A tight battle is expected between Labour and Reform, with turnout likely to be a major deciding factor in the final result.
Here’s what you need to know about the Makerfield by-election:
What time are the results announced?
The final results declaration for the Makerfield by-election is expected in the early hours of Friday morning, between 4am and 5am.
It is possible that the final result may be indicated sooner than this, with observers on-site at the count able to report what they see on the night.
In the event of a tight contest, it is also possible that there could be a recount, which could potentially add a couple of extra hours on to the final declaration time.
Is there an exit poll?
Unlike a general election, exit polls are not usually carried out for single constituency by-elections. Instead, those who want to gauge an idea of the possible result can turn to final constituency opinion polls published over the past few days and weeks.
Since its creation in 1983, Wigan’s Makerfield has been considered a Labour “safe seat”, always remaining a stronghold for the party.
However, Mr Simons won the seat by a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK at the 2024 general election.
May’s local elections saw Mr Farage’s party win every council ward in the Makerfield constituency, securing around half the vote. Labour was left trailing behind, having secured little more than a quarter of the ballots.
With less than 24 hours to go until the final result, it will be a tense wait for the mayor of Greater Manchester and his opponents as they await the outcome of a result that could shape Britain’s politics forever.
To follow along as the results are announced, follow The Independent’s live coverage of the Makerfield by-election.
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