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BARISAN Nasional's (BN) electoral strength in Perak could make the coalition a crucial player in determining the state's political landscape at the next general election (GE), with potential alliances with either Perikatan Nasional (PN) or Pakatan Harapan (PH) producing markedly different outcomes.
The success of BN's cooperation with PN in Johor and Negeri Sembilan has fuelled speculation that similar political arrangements could shape the contest in Perak, particularly as parties begin assessing their prospects ahead of GE16.
PN has already begun weighing the possibility of working with BN, while DAP, a component of PH, has expressed aspirations of creating a red wave in Perak.
The choice of political partner, however, could prove particularly important for BN as it seeks to remain relevant and retain its position in the state administration.
Analysis based on the results of GE15 suggests BN has considerable room to expand its State Legislative Assembly representation, although the potential gains vary depending on the coalition arrangement.
Under a PH-BN scenario, BN could potentially gain at least 13 additional seats on top of the nine it currently holds — Kota Tampan, Temengor, Lintang, Pengkalan Baharu, Belanja, Chenderiang, Ayer Kuning, Rungkup and Behrang.
The seats that could potentially shift to BN include Pengkalan Hulu, Kenering, Alor Pongsu, Selinsing, Changkat Jering, Trong, Chenderoh, Lubok Merbau, Bukit Chandan, Manong, Bota, Pangkor and Slim, all currently held by PN.
PH could also benefit from a PH-BN arrangement, with the coalition potentially adding at least eight seats to its existing 26.
The potential gains stem partly from vote splitting between PH and BN in GE15, which contributed to PN victories in several constituencies.
A PN-BN arrangement, meanwhile, would produce an even larger combined bloc. Based on the same voting data, PN and BN could potentially control 41 of Perak's 59 state seats, leaving PH with 18.
PH could lose at least six seats under such a scenario, although the eventual distribution of those seats would depend on several factors.
The figures demonstrate BN's significant electoral value in Perak, making it a potentially important component of any political cooperation formula.
However, a larger combined vote share does not automatically translate into easy victories.
For BN, the central challenge would be balancing cooperation with the need to retain its traditional support base and political identity. Its eventual performance could also depend on seat negotiations, candidate selection and grassroots acceptance of any coalition arrangement.
While PN-BN appears to offer the largest voting bloc on paper, BN would have to weigh the benefits of greater electoral strength against the possibility of losing some of its existing supporters through a change in political alignment.
Ultimately, the direction taken by BN and its potential partners will depend on their ability to negotiate a mutually beneficial arrangement. Alternatively, the party could choose to contest independently, although that would carry its own political risks.
The GE15 results therefore suggest that BN possesses significant bargaining power in Perak, with its eventual choice of political partners potentially becoming one of the decisive factors in determining which coalition secures the most state seats at the next election.
*Saifullah Ahmad is Sinar Harian Perak Bureau Chief.
