There is inherent risk with any major transfer, and perhaps the biggest gamble Manchester United are taking, should they sign Brighton’s Carlos Baleba, is that they don’t yet quite know who he is or what he might become.
Is he the brilliant teenager who commanded Premier League midfields when he first arrived at Brighton, or the 22-year-old of last season who let that form slip away? Is he a defensive midfielder who stitches play together, or a box-to-box all-action superhero? Is he a destroyer of oppositions’ plans, or something altogether more refined?
Baleba grew up in Cameroon where his footballer father put him on a gruelling training programme aged 10, and he was signed by Lille on his 18th birthday. His performances in France pinged radars at Jamestown Analytics, the secretive company informing Brighton’s recruitment, and Baleba moved to the Premier League in a £23m transfer.
I was at the Amex for Baleba’s first Premier League start and he was thrilling to watch, the best player on the pitch in a frantic 2-2 draw with Liverpool. He used his athleticism to snuff out fires all over the field, but he also had the technical skill and unbridled confidence to sashay through Liverpool’s midfield with the ball at his feet. It was all the more remarkable given his mother had died just a few months before he left France.
His then manager, Roberto De Zerbi, thanked Brighton’s recruitment department for finding another gem. “He’s very young, a very good player with incredible potential,” De Zerbi said, “and he can be one of the most important midfielders in Europe in the future.”
His very next game was a 2-1 defeat by Manchester City, and a chastening experience – Baleba later admitted he couldn’t keep up with the pace of the game. He worked hard to adjust to the Premier League’s rhythms over the following months, and gradually established himself as an important cog in Brighton’s machine.
His qualities came to the fore in an outstanding second season that sparked United’s interest. Baleba ranked highly among Premier League players for ball recoveries and interceptions, and was able to cover huge ground to break up attacks and stop dangerous transitions.
But Baleba proved to be much more than just a defensive midfielder. His ability on the ball, honed playing as a winger in youth football, helped him evade the press, wriggling his way out of cul-de-sacs and driving upfield. He headed the ball like a man four inches taller than his 5ft 10in frame, dribbled like a forward player, and racked up progressive carries to match the best in Europe.
United were ready to pay up to £70m for Baleba last summer, but Brighton wanted more than £100m, pitching his price in line with his predecessor, Moises Caicedo, who Chelsea bought for £115m. The clubs were too far apart and a deal never materialised.
The speculation appeared to affect Baleba in last season’s Premier League campaign. So did a niggling injury which he played through, as well as a calendar broken up by the Africa Cup of Nations, and he completed only three full 90 minutes in the league. The nadir came against Aston Villa in February, when manager Fabian Hurzeler substituted a distraught Baleba after only 22 minutes in order to save him from a second yellow card.
So which version of Baleba would United be signing? Time will tell, but there is little doubt about his ceiling. He is still only 22, still learning the game, and has already come a long way. He reflected on his time at Lille: “Defensively, tactically, I can say it: [I was] rubbish, zero.” He will only improve working with Michael Carrick.
At his best, Baleba roves from one end to the other, strong and quick, skilful and intelligent, protecting his defence not only with his defensive interventions but in his ability to escape trouble and relieve pressure. There have been some questions over his positional sense, but you don’t rack up his number of interceptions without being in the right place at the right time.
Perhaps most importantly, he could blend seamlessly with Youri Tielemans, who United bought earlier this summer from Aston Villa. Tielemans has complementary characteristics to Baleba, as a penetrative passer and a careful reader of play. One takes the temperature of a game, the other runs headfirst into the eye of the storm.
Baleba does not always look at his most comfortable receiving passes from his goalkeeper on the edge of his box – he is better facing forwards – but Tielemans will fill that role, while Kobbie Mainoo and new signing Andrey Santos are well suited to that deeper build-up position. Likewise, Tielemans cannot devour 60 yards in a few seconds with the ball at his feet, as Baleba does.
For United’s part, it is a transfer that indicates a newfound shrewdness in the way the hierarchy operates. You can see it in the retention of Carrick’s steady presence as head coach, in the acquisition of players who already know the Premier League, in the balanced age profile of the squad. Players such as Benjamin Sesko, Mainoo, Senne Lammens and Amad Diallo – and perhaps now Baleba – could have long and successful careers at Old Trafford.
Even walking away from Baleba last summer showed a certain prudence that had deserted United for much of the past decade. Where they previously blundered around the transfer market waving big cheques in the direction of players who the whole world knew were prime targets, there is a subtlety and pragmatism to the way United have gone about their business.
Now they are set to sign a player with unbridled potential, even if it may need carefully unlocking after a difficult season. Perhaps most encouragingly for United’s supporters, Baleba is not just a player they want, but exactly the profile the team needs.
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