MLB expansion sounds inevitable from the outside, but some owners are asking a harder question: who pays for two more teams after the expansion checks clear?
The public energy is real. Sacramento, Nashville, Salt Lake City and other hopeful markets are acting like baseball’s next growth wave is only a matter of timing.
Inside ownership circles, the math is less romantic. Expansion brings money up front, but it also creates two more clubs sharing the same central revenue streams.
MLB expansion revenue sharing fears slow the push
Just Baseball highlighted the owner-side concern that new teams could drain more from MLB’s revenue-sharing system than they add.
“Why would we want to subsidize two more small-market teams? I don’t understand it. The economics don’t add up,” one executive said.
Another owner put the concern even more bluntly: “Those teams certainly won’t be paying money into revenue sharing, so it will be less money for everyone else. What’s the added benefit, to get more fans engaged? I’m not sure expansion will drive fan engagement in either market.”
That is the real argument. Expansion fees could reach billions per team, but those are one-time checks. Revenue sharing and national media splits are recurring costs.
MLB owners remember the last expansion lessons
Baseball has not expanded since 1998, when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays joined the league. Before that, the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins arrived in 1993.
The history is mixed. Colorado and Arizona built strong early fan bases, with the Diamondbacks winning a World Series quickly, but the Florida examples still shape owner anxiety.
The Marlins won two titles, yet have often struggled with attendance. The Rays have built excellent baseball teams, including two American League pennant winners, but attendance has remained a constant issue in Tampa Bay.
That is why some owners look at small-market expansion candidates and see risk. They are not just asking whether a city wants baseball. They are asking whether that city can support baseball every year.
Rob Manfred still sees expansion as baseball’s future
Commissioner Rob Manfred has repeatedly said he wants MLB to reach 32 teams before his term ends in January 2029. He has also argued that strong demand for MLB’s product should push the league to find ways to deliver it.
There are real benefits. A 32-team league makes scheduling cleaner, opens the door to major realignment and could reduce travel.
The players would also gain jobs, with two new rosters creating 52 major league spots. That part of the case is straightforward.
The ownership question is not about whether expansion sounds good. It is whether two new franchises make everyone richer after the press conferences end. Until MLB answers that, the expansion race may be less certain than the candidate cities hope.
