The World Cup could bring a £7.6bn boost to the UK economy, offering a welcome shot in the arm for pubs, restaurants and hospitality businesses at a time when growth remains fragile.
But economists and employers are being warned that the tournament could also trigger a sharp fall in workplace productivity, with millions of workers planning to call in sick, work from home or take unofficial time off after late-night matches.
New analysis by money.co.uk suggests the wider economy will benefit from a net gain of £7.6bn between May and July this year, as football fans flock to pubs, travel across the country to watch games and spend more on food, drink and entertainment.
The biggest winners are expected to be Britain's hospitality businesses. Food and beverage companies are forecast to enjoy a £4.2bn revenue boost during the three-month period, a 9.3 per cent increase compared with a typical summer.
Accommodation providers are expected to see an even larger proportional increase, with spending rising by 25.2 per cent, generating an additional £3.5bn in revenue. Rail and transport operators could benefit from a further £1.8bn uplift as fans travel to screenings, pubs and social events.
Sports and recreation businesses are forecast to gain £3.1bn, while employment services and creative arts sectors are also expected to benefit from increased activity surrounding the tournament.
The prospect of a consumer spending surge will be welcomed after official figures showed the UK economy contracted by 0.1 per cent in April, while rising energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on household finances and business confidence.
Yet the World Cup's economic impact is unlikely to be entirely positive.
Separate research suggests that millions of workers are already planning to prioritise football over work, potentially costing employers billions of pounds in lost output.
A survey by brewing company Allsopp's found that one in five Britons intends to pull a "sickie" after at least one World Cup match. That equates to almost 6.9 million workers and could result in an estimated £2.4bn hit to economic output.
If England progress deep into the tournament, the cost could rise dramatically. Researchers estimate that repeated absences following England matches could cost as much as £7.3bn during the group stages and up to £16.9bn if the Three Lions reach the final.
The problem may be compounded by widespread remote working. More than a third of respondents said they planned to work from home rather than take annual leave, while separate research from VoucherCodes found 61 per cent of fans would work remotely if it allowed them to watch matches.
The discount provider estimated that post-match absences and reduced productivity could wipe out 2.5 million working days and cost the economy as much as £875m.
Nearly half of workers aged between 25 and 34 admitted they would call in sick because of a hangover after a late-night match, according to the survey.
The challenge for employers stems partly from the tournament's timing. Many matches will kick off late in the evening UK time because the World Cup is being hosted across North America, increasing the likelihood of tired workers arriving late or missing work altogether.
For pubs and bars, however, those late-night kick-offs are expected to translate into a bumper summer.
Government licensing rules will allow many pubs to remain open into the early hours during England and Scotland matches, creating what industry leaders hope will be one of the most profitable periods in recent years.
The British Beer and Pub Association estimates that if England reach the final, an additional 55 million pints could be sold during the tournament, equivalent to around 1,240 extra pints for every pub in the country.
Research from Opinium suggests football fans could spend an additional £600m in pubs during the World Cup alone, with younger consumers driving much of the increase.
Nearly three in five Gen Z adults say they expect to watch matches in pubs, compared with less than a third of the population overall. Six in 10 also plan to visit pubs multiple times a month over the summer.
Jamie Allsopp, re-founder of Allsopp's Brewery, said the tournament would provide a much-needed lifeline for venues struggling with rising costs.
“While people pulling sickies to watch the World Cup and hungover staff working from home might not be great news for employers, the drive towards pubs has been sorely needed for the hospitality sector,” he said.
“This is going to be one of the biggest periods ever for pubs, and it comes at a crucial time when VAT has been choking the industry.”
The figures underline a familiar economic reality of major sporting events. While football tournaments can generate billions in consumer spending and provide a significant boost to sectors such as hospitality, travel and leisure, they often do so by diverting spending from elsewhere and disrupting normal working patterns.
Indeed, money.co.uk's analysis suggests not every industry will emerge as a winner. Retail and wholesale businesses are forecast to suffer a £6.3bn decline in revenue as consumers shift spending towards experiences, food and drink. Broadcast and film businesses are also expected to lose around £650m as audiences focus on football coverage.
For policymakers, the World Cup presents a mixed picture. The tournament could provide a welcome economic lift at a time of weak growth and squeezed consumer confidence, but employers may also find themselves grappling with a summer of absenteeism, late starts and distracted staff.
As England fans dare to dream of another deep run in the competition, Britain's pubs could be celebrating long before the final whistle. The country's bosses, however, may be watching the fixture list with considerably less enthusiasm.
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