MANILA, Philippines — More registered Filipino voters expect Vice President Sara Duterte to be convicted in her impeachment trial, according to a survey.
PUBLiCUS Asia's PAHAYAG third-quarter survey from Oct. 1 to 4, 2026 found that 44 percent were anticipating a conviction and 31 percent an acquittal while 25 percent were undecided or unable to say how the trial would end. Another 11 percent believed the proceedings could conclude without a final verdict.
The findings, however, predate the Oct. 13 withdrawal by House prosecutors of three of the four impeachment charges against Duterte, a development that could affect public perception of the proceedings.
The survey results also showed substantial public interest in the trial, with 65 percent of respondents saying they were highly interested in following the proceedings.
Online news reports and television broadcasts were each cited by 50 percent of respondents as sources of information about the trial, while 45 percent relied on livestreams and live trial coverage.
On the evidence presented by the prosecution, 44 to 46 percent of respondents considered it sufficient, while 38 to 40 percent believed additional evidence was needed. The survey reported stronger support for the sufficiency of the evidence in Metro Manila and South Luzon, while respondents in Mindanao were more likely to say more evidence was necessary.
Similarly, 45 to 47 percent said they were convinced by the evidence presented so far, compared with 37 to 38 percent who remained unconvinced.
Opinion was evenly divided over the testimony of Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte concerning government contracts awarded to GenCorp Industries Inc. and the alleged conflict of interest involving the vice president.
Assessments of the senator-judges were less favorable than views of the presiding officer. Fifty-four percent of respondents said they were satisfied with Sen. Francis Escudero’s performance as presiding officer of the Senate Impeachment Court.
However, only 38 percent considered the senator-judges’ collective performance satisfactory, while 46 percent rated it poor or very poor.
Senators Bam Aquino and Risa Hontiveros were tied as the senator-judges respondents believed had performed particularly well, each receiving 33 percent. Sen. Kiko Pangilinan followed at 28 percent, while Escudero received 26 percent.
On the voting threshold for conviction, 35 percent of respondents believed 16 senator-judges were required, while 34 percent estimated the threshold at 12 to 14 votes.
The survey found that 52 percent supported the Senate Impeachment Court’s decision to calculate the two-thirds voting requirement based on senators legally and factually able to participate, rather than the full 24-member Senate.
Given the revised threshold, half of respondents believed at least 14 senator-judges would vote to convict Duterte on all three alleged counts: grave threats, misuse of confidential funds and unexplained wealth.
When asked how they would vote as senator-judges based on the evidence available, four in 10 respondents said they would vote to convict on all allegations. Three in 10 said they would vote to acquit, while the remaining three in 10 said they would abstain or were undecided.
The survey also found that 57 percent believed some senator-judges might change their positions as additional evidence and arguments were presented. Meanwhile, 54 percent believed some judges might already be inclined to convict before the defense completed its presentation.
Still, 66 percent agreed that senator-judges should wait for the defense to present its case before making a final decision.
On Duterte’s treatment during the proceedings, 47 percent believed she had been treated fairly by the government when considering both the impeachment trial and the separate criminal case involving alleged grave threats, while 36 percent believed she had been treated unfairly.
The survey covered 1,581 registered Filipino voters interviewed from Oct. 1 to 4. PUBLiCUS Asia described PAHAYAG as an independent, non-commissioned quarterly survey using nationwide purposive sampling from the market research panel maintained by PureSpectrum’s Singapore office.
Questionable silence
Meanwhile, Vice President Sara Duterte’s spokesman Salvador Paolo A. Panelo Jr. earlier on Wednesday questioned the Senate’s silence over the prosecution’s withdrawal of two impeachment articles against the vice president, claiming the move wasted as much as P500 million in public funds.
In a statement, Panelo said the Senate had spent 20 trial days hearing Articles I, on the alleged misuse of confidential funds, and IV, on grave threats, before the prosecution withdrew both charges.
He estimated Senate operating costs at about P25 million per day, putting the expenditure on the two abandoned articles at P500 million, excluding congressional salaries, legal fees, consultants and other expenses.
Panelo further claimed that the total public cost could exceed P1 billion when the House of Representatives’ proceedings on the withdrawn articles were included.
“Who is going to hold them accountable?” Panelo said, questioning why the Senate majority had not expressed concern over the alleged waste of public funds.
He also argued that withdrawing the charges deprived Duterte of the opportunity to confront the allegations and present counterevidence before the Senate impeachment court.
Panelo described the withdrawal as an admission that the allegations had no basis from the outset, while claiming that Duterte had been denied the opportunity to secure an acquittal through a ruling based on evidence and law.
He also questioned whether political considerations were behind the decision, raising the possibility that the prosecution wanted to hasten the proceedings ahead of the 2028 elections.
Among the questions he raised was whether the withdrawal was intended to protect the political prospects of senator-judges seeking elective office in 2028 or to secure a conviction under what he described as a lower voting threshold.
“The silence is deafening,” Panelo said, adding that the Senate majority should explain why it had not challenged the alleged waste of public funds.
His statement came after the prosecution withdrew Articles I and IV, leaving the remaining impeachment charges against Duterte to be resolved by the Senate impeachment court.
