PULSE Asia’s latest presidential preference survey puts Vice President Sara Duterte at 50 percent in its broad candidate-list question. In the narrower scenarios it tested, two- and three-candidate fields that may be a better guide to a likely 2028 race than a seven-name list, she gets 52 to 60 percent nationally and 94 to 97 percent in Mindanao.
Pulse Asia interviewed 2,400 adults face-to-face from Sept. 17 to 24 and asked whom they would vote for if the May 2028 elections were held during that period. On the broad list, Duterte received 50 percent; former vice president and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, 26 percent; and Sen. Raffy Tulfo, 12 percent.
The fieldwork overlapped with Duterte’s impeachment trial in the Senate, which began in July after the House of Representatives impeached her in May. The charges include the alleged misuse of P612.5 million in confidential funds. Duterte has denied wrongdoing.
Her national preference was 49 percent in July and 50 percent in September. The one-point gain is within the national margin of error of +/- 2 points. The candidate list also changed between surveys, so the readings are close but not identical. Still, the survey shows no decline in her stated preference.
A base that holds across scenarios
The most striking finding in Pulse Asia’s September survey is not simply Duterte’s national lead in the hypothetical 2028 presidential preference sets. It is the extraordinary depth of her support in Mindanao, where she registers between 94 percent and 97 percent across all five candidate configurations tested.
Her Mindanao preference reaches 97 percent when pitted against Erwin Tulfo and Bam Aquino, 96 percent against Erwin Tulfo and Risa Hontiveros, and 96 percent in the head-to-head configuration against Leni Robredo. Even when the alternative is Hontiveros alone, Duterte posts 94 percent in the region.
The contrast with her national numbers is striking. Across the five sets, her national preference ranges from 52 percent to 60 percent. The survey, therefore, presents two dimensions of her political standing: a national advantage in the hypothetical matchups and an overwhelming regional concentration of support in Mindanao.
For the 2028 presidential race, the significance of these numbers lies in what they reveal about the geographic foundation of Duterte’s political strength. The question is not merely whether she leads nationally today, but how much of that regional advantage can translate into support across the rest of the country.
The headline’s 97 and 52 percent come from different scenarios: the 97 percent is from the Erwin Tulfo-Bam Aquino matchup, while the 52 percent is from the Robredo-Raffy Tulfo matchup. They are not a matched national-regional pair. The table makes that distinction visible while showing that Mindanao remains between 94 and 97 percent across the five alternative configurations.
These are stated preferences nearly two years before the election. They are not forecasts of the eventual vote: candidates may change their plans, alliances may form, and voters may reconsider.
The Visayas and Metro Manila
In the broad question, Duterte received 56 percent in the Visayas, 40 in Metro Manila and 28 in the rest of Luzon. Robredo’s numbers run the other way: 36 percent in the rest of Luzon, 31 in Metro Manila, 28 in the Visayas and 2 in Mindanao.
Duterte’s 56 percent in the Visayas is a majority, so her national standing does not rest on Mindanao alone. Metro Manila is more competitive. She leads Robredo 40 to 31 in the broad question, and the two tie at 46 head-to-head. In the rest of Luzon, Robredo leads 55 to 34 head-to-head. The national result combines sharply different regional patterns.
Metro Manila has also moved since July. In the head-to-head, Robredo led 53 to 40 in July, and in September the two tied at 46. That is a large change, but two readings cannot establish a lasting shift.
What about class?
Duterte led in every socioeconomic class in the broad question: 44 percent among Class ABC, 48 in Class D and 68 in Class E. Her support is not confined to lower-income voters, though it is highest among Class E.
The ABC lead narrows when the choice is between two. Head-to-head, she had 48 percent among ABC respondents to Robredo’s 44, which Pulse Asia describes as virtually or exactly the same. In the broad question, her Class E share rose from 59 percent in July to 68 in September. Class subsamples are smaller than the national sample, so that jump needs confirming.
Trust is a different question
Social Weather Stations’ Sept. 21 to 27 survey, commissioned by Stratbase Consultancy, measured trust rather than votes. Among 1,500 adults, 56 percent expressed much trust in Duterte, 26 percent little trust and 17 percent were undecided. In June, 57 percent had much trust.
By area, much trust was 87 percent in Mindanao, 60 in the Visayas, 46 in Metro Manila and 41 in the rest of Luzon, the same ordering as the preference numbers. The rest of Luzon shows why the two should not be merged. There, 41 percent say they trust her, but only 28 percent chose her in the broad question.
What the numbers cannot say
A poll cannot show where Duterte’s support would be without the trial. A steady national number does not mean the trial made no difference, and it does not mean it helped her. It records preferences, not their causes.
The next surveys should show whether the regional pattern holds as the 2028 field takes shape, whether Metro Manila’s tie persists and whether the gap in the rest of Luzon remains.
Bong Habana Ruado is a former public-sector official whose career has spanned government, politics, public policy and the private sector. His current interests include public opinion research, governance data and explanatory journalism, with a particular focus on interpreting political surveys beyond their headline numbers. He holds degrees in political science and law (Juris Doctor) and completed the Strategic Business Economics Program at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
