MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research's newly released 2028 Presidential Political Map showed a geographically divided electorate, with Vice President Sara Duterte retaining her strongest support in Mindanao and leading in the Visayas, while former vice president and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo continuing to dominate most parts of Luzon.
The political map is based on OCTA's Q2 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) national survey, conducted from July 4 to 11 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipinos. It presents regional voter preferences in a hypothetical head-to-head contest between Duterte and Robredo in the 2028 presidential election.
The survey found Duterte leading nationally with 43 percent voter preference, compared with Robredo's 34 percent, while 23 percent of respondents said they were undecided, refused to answer, or favored neither candidate.
Mindanao remained Duterte's strongest bailiwick, where she received 76 percent support against Robredo's 6 percent, with 18 percent undecided. Duterte also led in the Visayas, securing 51 percent support versus Robredo's 26 percent, while 23 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Robredo, meanwhile, posted her strongest numbers in Luzon. She garnered 59 percent support in Northern Luzon against Duterte's 18 percent, with 23 percent undecided. In Southern Luzon, Robredo received 52 percent, compared with Duterte's 34 percent, while 14 percent were undecided.
Metro Manila emerged as the country's most competitive region, with Duterte and Robredo tied at 34 percent each. Thirty-two percent of respondents in the National Capital Region were undecided or declined to answer.
Compared with the previous quarter, Duterte's national voter preference declined by three percentage points from 46 percent, while Robredo's slipped by one point from 35 percent. The share of undecided respondents increased from 19 percent in the first quarter to 23 percent in the second quarter.
OCTA said the political map provided a snapshot of current public opinion and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the 2028 presidential election, noting that candidate decisions, political alliances, campaign developments and emerging national issues could still reshape voter preferences.
The survey used probability sampling and carries a national margin of error of ±3 percentage points at the 95-percent confidence level.
