The El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean could be the strongest in more than a 100 years, as the world braces for even more extreme weather.
According to the UK Met Office, 2027 is "very likely" to become the hottest year on record, as the natural weather phenomenon clashes with human-caused climate change.
"We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event," says Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office. "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts."
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that the El Niño event continues to "intensify steadily" and is expected to "dominate climate patterns" from August to October 2026 – increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns.
Its latest multi-model forecasts indicate seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. This is often referred to as a 'super' El Niño, despite not being an official category. It has also led to a slew of media publications warning of a 'Godzilla-strength' El Niño.
In addition to a strengthening El Niño, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (when a climate pattern in the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer on average, while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average) is forecast.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act," warns UN Secretary-General António Guterres. "El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas."
Guterres adds that fossil fuels are "fanning the flames" of the crisis, calling for an end to the expansion of coal, oil and gas.
But, will El Niño actually reach Europe, and how will its wrath be felt?
What is El Niño and what does it affect?
El Niño (Spanish for ‘the boy’) is a natural weather phenomenon that occurs irregularly – every two to seven years on average – when sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.
This pushes global temperatures up, paving the way for more frequent extreme weather events.
Previous El Niño events, such as the one that formed in May 2023 and lasted until March 2024, for example, contributed towards record-breaking heat. This helped fuel long-standing droughts and wildfires around the world.
However, El Niño’s impact is mainly felt in the tropics.
South America, the southern US, East Africa and Central Asia have all experienced heightened flood risks during previous El Niño events – while droughts and wildfire risks rise across large parts of Australia, northern parts of South America and in certain Asian countries such as Indonesia.
How does El Niño impact Europe?
In Europe, El Niño’s impacts are much more indirect and tend to be less severe.
The natural phenomenon could increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year, such as a milder, wetter and windier autumn and early winter, but it is unlikely to impact Europe’s 2026 summer.
This means that the recent months of blistering heat that has killed thousands of Europeans is not a result of El Niño, despite newspapers linking the two together.
However, extreme weather overseas will still have a knock-on effect for Europe – with experts warning of potential food shortages.
The IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands has been working in areas that are directly impacted by El Niño and warn that many staple foods that Europe imports could be at risk.
In Nicaragua, for example, key crops such as maize and beans may fail in already fragile areas, leading to food insecurity and income loss in the country.
A lack of rain and low flows in rivers also mean that irrigated crops in Colombia, Northeast Brazil and India will face severe restrictions or will need to rely more on groundwater, potentially causing overexploitation in the area – and export shortages.
‘El Niño is a distraction’ from climate change
While El Niño’s impacts aren’t to be undermined, climate experts have pointed out that climate change is playing a much bigger role in extreme weather and rising temperatures.
Most El Niño events have temporarily increased global average temperatures by around 0.2℃. Climate change, on the other hand, has pushed the global surface (sea and air) temperature up by approximately 1.3 - 1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels.
El Niño’s impacts are therefore compounded by an already warming world, rather than being solely responsible for the fallout experts predict.
This is why 2025 was the third warmest year on record – hotter than the El Niño year of 2016 – despite the naturally forming cool drag of a La Niña event (El Niño’s naturally-occuring counterpart that typically cools global temperatures).
“El Niño is a natural phenomenon,” climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London said back in May, before El Niño conditions had officially started.
“It comes and goes. Climate change on the contrary gets worse as long as we do not stop burning fossil fuels. So climate change is the reason to freak out.”
Ioanna Vergini, founder of global weather forecasting platform WFY24, tells Euronews Earth that El Niño has been used as a “distraction” from climate change while Europe baked under 40℃ temperatures last week.
A rapid attribution analysis from World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that daytime highs and overnight temperatures seen during the recent heat dome would have been “virtually impossible to occur at this time of year” as recently as 1976 – but have been made possible due to continued fossil-fuel emissions.
