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SHAH ALAM – Barisan Nasional’s (BN) determination to defend all 21 state seats it won in the 2021 Melaka state election has raised a key question: if cooperation between BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) continues, how many seats will realistically be left for the coalition to contest?
Of the 28 state seats in Melaka, only seven are not currently held by BN.
Five are held by Pakatan Harapan (PH), Bandar Hilir, Ayer Keroh, Kesidang, Kota Laksamana and Bukit Katil, while the remaining two, Bemban and Sungai Udang, were won by PN in the last state election.
The situation makes seat negotiations in Melaka considerably more complex than the looser BN-PN arrangement in Johor and the full cooperation forged in Negeri Sembilan.
In Johor, PN still contested 11 seats, while its supporters were urged to back BN in constituencies where PN did not field candidates.
In Negeri Sembilan, there were no clashes after BN contested 25 seats and PN contested 11, before both coalitions formed the state government with a combined 25-seat majority.
That success raised expectations among supporters that the BN-PN partnership would continue in Melaka and eventually be extended to the 16th General Election (GE16).
However, BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's declaration that the coalition intended to defend all 21 of its incumbent seats suggested there may be little room left for PN.
Umno supreme council member Datuk Seri Ahmad Maslan also believed the BN-PN formula should be maintained in Melaka after it successfully prevented vote splitting in Negeri Sembilan.
Meanwhile, PN deputy chairman Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said the coalition was confident cooperation with BN would continue, although the number of seats it would contest had yet to be discussed in detail.
Both statements reflected a willingness to work together, but the question of seat allocation remained unresolved.
An analysis of the 2021 state election results also showed that 13 seats were won with majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes.
Among them were Serkam with a majority of just 79 votes, Pengkalan Batu (131), Duyong (200), Bemban (328), Tanjung Bidara (364), Sungai Udang (530), as well as Gadek and Durian Tunggal, both with majorities of 559 votes.
Also on the list were Paya Rumput (629), Pantai Kundor (827), Rembia (860), Kelebang (876) and Machap Jaya (938).
The large number of marginal seats means the risk of vote splitting cannot be underestimated should BN and PN contest against each other.
Former Penang BN executive secretary Azizi Safar said that if BN insisted on retaining all 21 seats, only seven would mathematically remain available for negotiations with PN.
He said four of those seven seats were PH strongholds, Bandar Hilir, Ayer Keroh, Kesidang and Kota Laksamana, while Bukit Katil, represented by Amanah vice-president Adly Zahari, was regarded as more marginal.
“If we exclude the seats won by DAP and constituencies that PN is realistically unlikely to win, the reality is that only about three seats have genuine potential for negotiation.
“That raises the question of whether BN-PN cooperation merely strengthens BN's position or is truly based on mutual interests,” he told Sinar Harian.
However, Azizi believed BN's initial stance of defending all 21 seats was more of a negotiating strategy aimed at strengthening its bargaining position.
He said it was common for both sides to begin negotiations with high demands before reaching a compromise once top leaders sat down together.
“BN also needs to consider its long-term interests. If Umno insists on retaining all its seats in Melaka, what will happen during GE16 seat negotiations involving Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, where Umno is considerably weaker?” he said.
He projected that one possible formula would see BN contest at least 19 seats, with the remaining nine allocated to Pas and Parti Wawasan Negara.
He added Malay voters do not necessarily want Umno and Pas to merge into a single party, but they do expect electoral cooperation to avoid direct contests and vote splitting.
Meanwhile, Ayer Limau assemblyman Datuk Hameed Mytheen Kunju Basheeri said BN-PN cooperation had already proven effective in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
However, he believed BN should retain all 21 seats it currently holds based on the state government's administrative and development record over the past five years.
“Constituencies represented and developed by BN, and which have become synonymous with BN's leadership, are better maintained under the status quo.
“Perhaps discussions can be opened for seats that are not currently represented by BN. In my view, that is where negotiations with other parties can begin,” he said.
Hameed Mytheen acknowledged that cooperation with PN could strengthen BN's position in marginal seats but cautioned that election results were not determined by mathematics alone.
He said voter sentiment, public acceptance of political parties and the strength of individual candidates would also influence the outcome.
Pengkalan Batu assemblyman Datuk Kalsom Noordin, meanwhile, said all BN representatives in Melaka would abide by the decision of Chief Minister and Melaka BN chairman Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh.
With PN signalling its readiness to continue the partnership, negotiations are now centred on one key question: will BN stand firm on defending all 21 seats, or will it relinquish some of them to ensure the BN-PN formula continues in Melaka?
