There are four candidates at the top tier of the race for the NBA Most Valuable Player award. It’s notable that none of them are American, which have been content with rounding out the top 5 in the past years.
Let’s explore the pros and cons of each MVP candidate and evaluate their chances. Will Victor Wembanyama win the MVP in just his third season?
Luka Doncic
If this were the NFL with different offensive and defensive lineups, Luka would be an easy pick. He is an offensive savant, and he can score and orchestrate. His offensive skill makes it impossible to predict what he will do. He can even make his teammates better offensively.
He has been a fixture in All-NBA throughout his career, except the season he got injured and traded. This year, he is back in the groove. But will he win it all?
Sure, he has been “valuable” as the Lakers would be one of the worst 10 teams without him. He is the likely scoring leader as well. With norms of 33.7 points (1st in NBA) 8.2 assists (4th) and 7.8 rebounds, it’s better than teammate LeBron James' career averages.
While those are MVP stats, and his presence made the Lakers third in the competitive Western Conference, his defensive shortcomings are just too glaring. Especially since he competes against:
Victor Wembanyama
Wemby has the chance to be only the fourth player in history to win the Defensive Player of the Year and MVP in the same season. The DPOY is all but certain, but the MVP is debatable. He could also join Derrick Rose and Bob McAdoo as MVP winners in only their third year.
Also notable: If Wemby wins, he will be the youngest player to win the award (previous was Derrick Rose).
Are we ready to see those records fall? Victor Wembanyama is undoubtedly the key to San Antonio’s sudden success. They are the most improved team from last year, and that is a solid argument for Wemby’s case.
However, Wembanyama’s stat line of 24.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks (league best) pales in comparison to his rivals. Partly because the Alien was placed on a minutes restriction early this season, and the Spurs have been conservative with his usage even while he is already fully cleared.
The main argument for Wemby’s value is how his huge improvement brought the Spurs from 34 wins last season to 57 wins already with seven games remaining.
While Luka is carrying the Lakers offensively, Wemby has carried his team defensively. The 7’5 Frenchman is probably the best overall player in these latter parts of the season. Solid arguments, but there were players who have been excellent from the start of the season.
Nikola Jokic
Jokic is noted as the best player in basketball, and has finished top two in MVP voting the past five years. Since 2021, he has won it thrice, and finished second to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Joel Embiid in their MVP seasons. Those losses were even controversially close, and some pundits blame “voter fatigue” for his losses.
His statline this year is very similar to last season: 27.9 points (8th), and a league leading 12.9 rebounds and 10.8 assists. In past year, averaging a triple-double and leading the league in 2 major categories gets a no-brainer MVP nod, but this year, the question is Jokic’s value to the team.
The Nuggets are fourth in the West, and lowest rank among his MVP rivals (who are all in the Western Conference). They did battle injuries, but so did another player:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SGA’s statline is very similar to last season’s MVP run: His team may record slightly less wins, but his field goal and 3-point percentages are up.
In short, he has all the same reasons to win MVP again. His team is still at the top, while battling injuries, specifically to Jalen Williams. SGA resiliently led the Thunder to a 33-4 record without their no.2 option, being an elite two-way player. He will likely win his second MVP, but the race is still wide open.