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SHAH ALAM - Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) major defeat in the Johor state election could affect its prospects in Negeri Sembilan, but analysts believe the upcoming contest will remain more competitive due to the different political dynamics between the two states.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said while electoral trends from Johor could influence voter sentiment in Negeri Sembilan, the two states should not be viewed through the same political lens as their landscapes differ significantly.
He said Johor has traditionally been considered a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold, whereas Negeri Sembilan is expected to present a more challenging and closely fought contest.
“PH’s defeat in Johor is likely to have some influence on its prospects in Negeri Sembilan, just as its poor performance in Sabah appeared to have affected the Johor election. However, each state has a different political landscape.
“While Johor has long been regarded as a BN stronghold, Negeri Sembilan is expected to be much more competitive. The key measure of success will be whether each coalition gains or loses seats compared with the 2023 state election,” he told Sinar Daily.
The Johor election outcome has also increased pressure on DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke, who hails from Negeri Sembilan, as expectations will be high for the party to defend its existing seats in the state.
Oh said DAP would at the very least be expected to retain the constituencies it currently holds.
He added that PH would need to adjust its campaign strategy by moving away from focusing heavily on criticising BN and instead presenting voters with a clearer reform agenda ahead of the next general election (GE).
“BN’s momentum from Johor could potentially influence voting patterns across Negeri Sembilan. In rural constituencies, BN may benefit from its cooperation with Pas.
“The Johor election also demonstrated that many urban voters were prepared to back BN as a way of expressing dissatisfaction with PH.
“The priority for Loke should be ensuring he retains his own constituency so that the election does not become a referendum on either DAP or his leadership,” he said.
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said BN’s strong performance in Johor could provide the coalition with significant momentum ahead of the Negeri Sembilan election.
She said the commanding victory may strengthen public confidence in BN’s ability to secure a win and form the state government, potentially encouraging more voters, particularly in mixed constituencies, to support the coalition.
However, she said PH still has opportunities to defend its position if it focuses on strengthening its local narrative and addressing voter concerns.
“PH needs to reassess its strategy, particularly by focusing on defending mixed seats, as there is no longer any guarantee that its existing constituencies will remain secure.
“The coalition should also concentrate on local issues, highlight the achievements of Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun and address the implications of BN’s Johor victory rather than ignoring it.
“Retaining Indian voter support should be another key priority, as this segment of the electorate could still swing either way and may represent PH’s greatest vulnerability,” she told Sinar Daily.
Syaza identified several marginal constituencies that could become key battlegrounds for BN, particularly those with slim majorities such as Ampangan, Klawang and Pilah, where the coalition could potentially make gains.
She also highlighted Lenggeng, Sungai Lui, Palong and Juasseh as areas where BN is expected to have strong prospects.
Meanwhile, Sikamat will be closely watched following Aminuddin’s decision not to contest the seat, although PH is still considered relatively secure in several urban constituencies.
“Despite these challenges, PH is still considered well positioned to retain its support in urban constituencies such as Lobak, Mambau, Bukit Kepayang, Seremban Jaya and Nilai, while Chennah is still viewed as relatively safe for PH.
“As seen in Johor, PH continues to perform more strongly in urban areas, while mixed constituencies are expected to be the main battlegrounds where BN has the strongest opportunity to make gains,” she said.
