Can Pakatan Harapan retain Negeri Sembilan? An in-depth analysis of the 2026 state election, the BN–PN pact, key battlegrounds and seat forecast.
The Negeri Sembilan state election on 1 August 2026 has evolved from a contest over the incumbent administration’s performance into a broader test of Malaysia’s rapidly changing coalition landscape.
With 36 seats in the State Legislative Assembly, a party or coalition requires at least 19 seats to form the government. The Election Commission has registered 889,490 eligible voters, comprising 867,151 ordinary voters, 16,884 military personnel and their spouses, and 5,455 police voters.
The most significant development is the decision by Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) to avoid contesting against one another. BN has fielded candidates in 25 constituencies, while PN is contesting the remaining 11. Pakatan Harapan (PH), by contrast, is contesting all 36 seats.
Although the arrangement has not been presented as a permanent coalition, its electoral objective is clear: to prevent the division of anti-PH votes and maximise the chances of defeating the PH-led administration constituency by constituency.
The arrangement is not, however, without internal complications. Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin announced that his party would contest under its own logo after claiming Bersatu had been excluded from discussions between PAS, PN and BN. Although Bersatu remains formally within PN, its decision to contest independently could result in additional multi-cornered fights and weaken the intended consolidation of opposition votes.
The 2023 result is no longer a reliable PH benchmark
In the 2023 state election, PH and BN cooperated under the federal unity government arrangement. Together, they won 31 of the state’s 36 seats, with PH securing 17, BN 14 and PN five. Their combined popular vote stood at about 60.9%, compared with PN’s 37.7%, while voter turnout was 68.3%.
It would, however, be misleading to assume that PH enters the 2026 election with the support that delivered those 31 seats. The 2023 result reflected the combined strength of PH’s urban and non-Malay support base and BN’s traditional rural machinery and organisation. In 2026, those two electoral blocs are competing against one another.
The split is particularly damaging for PH in Malay-majority rural and semi-urban constituencies. Research by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute found that BN’s grassroots machinery remained especially influential in rural Negeri Sembilan, while PN performed strongly among Malay voters in semi-urban constituencies. PH’s support, meanwhile, remained concentrated in urban and ethnically mixed areas.
Consequently, the BN–PN non-clash arrangement combines two complementary electoral strengths: BN’s established constituency machinery and local candidates, together with PN’s—particularly PAS’s—ability to mobilise conservative Malay-Muslim voters. In theory, this presents a stronger challenge to PH than the three-cornered contests many had initially anticipated.
Why PH could still retain Negeri Sembilan
PH’s greatest advantage is incumbency. Aminuddin Harun has led the state administration since 2018, providing the coalition with both a recognisable leader and an administrative record to present to voters.
PH has moved Aminuddin from Sikamat to Linggi, a seat won by BN with a majority of 1,461 votes in 2023. The move suggests PH is seeking not only to defend its urban strongholds but also to make inroads into BN’s traditional territory.
The state’s recent economic indicators also provide PH with credible campaign material. Negeri Sembilan’s economy was valued at RM55.8 billion in 2025, although growth moderated to 2.6% from 4.6% in 2024. The state recorded RM19.13 billion in approved private investments in 2025, up significantly from RM7.25 billion the previous year. In the first quarter of 2026, its unemployment rate stood at 2.4%, below the national average of 2.9%.
These figures allow PH to argue that political continuity has delivered investment, employment and economic stability. However, macroeconomic performance does not necessarily address voters’ concerns over the cost of living, housing affordability, traffic congestion, public transport and uneven development beyond the Seremban–Nilai growth corridor.
PH also retains a solid base in urban and mixed constituencies. In 2023, it recorded commanding majorities in Lobak, Bukit Kepayang, Mambau, Seremban Jaya, Nilai, Lukut, Chuah and Bahau. These included majorities of 19,684 in Bukit Kepayang, 14,940 in Mambau, 13,504 in Lobak, 12,703 in Seremban Jaya and 10,889 in Nilai. Such margins provide substantial electoral buffers, even after accounting for lower turnout or some movement of non-Malay voters towards MCA and MIC.
Several constituencies allocated to PN, including Lobak, Bukit Kepayang, Mambau and Lukut, were among PH’s strongest seats in 2023. Unless PH suffers an extraordinary collapse in support, these constituencies are unlikely to deliver the seats PN needs to form the government.
Why the BN–PN arrangement holds a slight edge
PH’s principal vulnerability lies in the number of marginal constituencies. Nearly one-third of Negeri Sembilan’s seats were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2023. These included Sungai Lui, Klawang, Serting, Palong, Jeram Padang, Lenggeng, Ampangan, Juasseh, Seri Menanti, Senaling and Kota. A swing of just 500 to 1,000 votes could therefore determine the next government.
Several BN-held seats were won by exceptionally narrow margins: Juasseh (78 votes), Kota (135), Seri Menanti (370), Sungai Lui (535), Palong (564), Senaling (662), Lenggeng (685) and Jeram Padang (693). In 2023, BN candidates benefited from PH supporters under the unity government arrangement. This time, PH will field its own candidates in every constituency.
However, the BN–PN understanding reduces the likelihood of PN splitting the Malay opposition vote. If most PN supporters follow party instructions and back BN candidates, BN could retain many of its rural seats even without the PH votes it received in 2023.
BN also enters the campaign with momentum following its strong showing in Johor, where it won 48 of 56 seats on 11 July. PH secured eight seats, while PN failed to win any. The result demonstrated BN’s ability to attract some voters previously aligned with PH, including in constituencies once regarded as opposition strongholds.
Johor, however, should not be treated as a direct predictor of Negeri Sembilan. BN enjoyed the advantages of incumbency, a well-established state organisation and a popular chief minister in Johor. In Negeri Sembilan, PH holds the incumbency advantage and the electoral contest is considerably more balanced. Analysts have therefore described the state as more competitive, fragmented and unpredictable than Johor.
The decisive battlegrounds
The election is unlikely to be decided in PH’s safest urban seats or BN’s strongest rural constituencies. Instead, three groups of battleground seats are likely to determine the outcome.
The first comprises marginal Malay-majority constituencies such as Sungai Lui, Palong, Jeram Padang, Lenggeng, Juasseh, Seri Menanti, Senaling and Kota. BN must retain most of these seats to remain on course for a majority.
The second consists of PN’s existing or potential strongholds, namely Serting, Paroi, Bagan Pinang and Gemas, together with Labu, which BN will contest under the new seat allocation. Although PN won all five seats in 2023, its dispute with Bersatu means the transfer of votes cannot be assumed.
The third group includes PH-held marginal or symbolically important seats such as Ampangan, Klawang and Sikamat, together with Linggi, where Aminuddin is contesting. Ampangan was won by just 329 votes and Klawang by 577 votes in 2023. A defeat for Aminuddin in Linggi would significantly damage PH’s credibility and complicate the selection of its next Menteri Besar.
Forecast
Based on current evidence, the BN–PN-aligned bloc appears to hold a slight advantage, largely because its non-clash arrangement provides a more efficient route to a majority in Malay-majority and marginal constituencies. My baseline projection is 19 to 21 seats for BN and PN combined, compared with 15 to 18 seats for PH.
PH nevertheless retains a realistic path to victory. It must consolidate its urban support, prevent a significant decline in Chinese and Indian voter turnout, win over moderate Malay voters and capture several marginal BN-held seats. A strong local campaign centred on Aminuddin’s administrative record could still deliver 18 or 19 seats.
The greatest uncertainty concerns vote transfers. While BN and PAS leaders may agree not to compete, they cannot guarantee that supporters of BN, PAS, Bersatu, MCA, MIC and Gerakan will vote for one another’s candidates. Confusion over Bersatu’s position could also create spoiler effects in several closely contested constituencies.
The most plausible outcome is therefore not a landslide but an election decided by one or two seats. BN and PN currently appear to have around a 50% chance of forming the next state government, compared with approximately 35% for PH. The remaining 15% reflects the possibility of a hung assembly or a result requiring post-election negotiations.
Ultimately, Negeri Sembilan’s voters are choosing more than just the next state government. They are deciding whether the PH–BN cooperation forged after the 2022 general election has reached its political limit—and whether a new UMNO–PAS-centred alignment could become Malaysia’s next governing formula.
Afi Roshezry Abu Bakar
Adi Wira Mohd Zin
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Kampar Campus)
