THE global supply chain in 2026 has shifted from post-pandemic recovery to a state of "forced evolution" driven by military conflict in the Middle East and a paralyzing energy emergency, according to Sergei Castillo, director, technical working group of Jill L. Tolentino Customs Brokerage (JLTCB).
Speaking at a shipping and logistics forum organized by NewsCentral, Castillo detailed a "multi-layer crisis" triggered by the escalation of military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict involving US, Israeli, and Iranian forces has effectively shuttered a waterway that handles 25 percent of global seaborne oil.
"Supply chain reliability is back on the radar in a big way," Castillo told the forum. "The 'Strait of Hormuz factor' now dictates the operational reality of every maritime carrier."
The impact is particularly acute in the Philippines. Following the blockade, the country declared a national energy emergency in March 2026. With the Philippines 90-percent dependent on the Gulf for petroleum, oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel.
The emergency has forced government agencies to slash fuel consumption by 10 percent, while the transport sector faces an existential threat. Castillo noted that carriers rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope are seeing transit times increase by up to 14 days and fuel consumption rise by 40 percent.
Against this backdrop, the role of the licensed customs broker (LCB) is being redefined. Castillo argued that brokers have transitioned from simple document processors to "geopolitical risk analysts" and "strategic business partners."
"Landed cost is no longer a static calculation," he said. "It is a dynamic variable influenced by war-risk surcharges and emergency fuel factors."
This shift comes as the profession navigates a legal transition. While the Supreme Court recently upheld provisions of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (CMTA) — ruling that signing goods declarations is no longer exclusive to brokers — Castillo
emphasized that their value now lies in specialized knowledge of supply chain resilience and tariff administration.
To combat the crisis, the Bureau of Customs (BOC) has accelerated its digital agenda. Key developments highlighted by Castillo include:
– The Electronic Certificate of Payment (e-CP) System – Launched March 9, this system automates links between the BOC and the Land Transportation Office, eliminating manual delays for vehicle imports.
– Emergency Preferential Handling – Under OCOM Memo 36-2026, the BOC now mandates 24/7 monitoring and expedited unloading for oil tankers to prevent "artificial hoarding" during the energy crisis.
– Hyper-Enforcement Customs agencies are increasingly using AI for trade enforcement, requiring brokers to master "decision intelligence" to manage complex classifications.
The forum highlighted a structural realignment in global trade. The traditional "just-in-time" inventory model is being replaced by "just-in-case" strategies, characterized by regional supply blocks and increased inventory buffers.
Additionally, ESG (environmental, social, and governance) requirements have become a survival imperative. Castillo noted that brokers now act as "ESG Guardians," verifying item-level traceability and ethical sourcing to avoid heavy fines.
"By elevating trade compliance from a back-office task to a real-time capability, the modern broker turns regulatory volatility into a competitive advantage," Castillo concluded. "We are the practitioners who ensure the Philippine supply chain remains resilient enough to thrive in a world defined by constant disruption." ASH MANUEL
