KUALA LUMPUR — The Negeri Sembilan state election has delivered another setback for Pakatan Harapan (PH), with political analysts attributing the outcome to the effectiveness of the Barisan Nasional (BN)-Perikatan Nasional (PN) electoral cooperation, shifting voter sentiment and weaknesses in PH’s campaign strategy.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) associate professor Dr Mazlan Ali said the results highlighted the success of BN and PN’s approach in consolidating Malay support, allowing both coalitions to maximise their electoral strength.
"BN's victory with 18 seats and PN's 7 seats proves that a Malay-Islam narrative can bring success in elections by uniting Malay votes.”
"What happened in the NS state election was the success of the coalition of two Malay coalitions which was a good strategy,” he told Scoop.
Dr Mazlan said the defeats of DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke and former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Aminuddin Harun reflected PH’s declining electoral performance.
"Yes, the defeat of DAP Secretary-General Anthony Loke and former Menteri Besar Aminudin is the culmination of PH's decline in performance to this day. The defeat of these two big figures sends a big message and tarnishes PH's image,” he said.
However, he stressed that PH’s response should go beyond leadership changes, urging the coalition to conduct a comprehensive post-election review.
Dr Mazlan also rejected claims that the Chinese community had entirely turned away from DAP, describing the outcome as a warning rather than a complete rejection.
"I think the Chinese community has not completely rejected DAP, it is just a warning. DAP needs to make immediate corrections,” he said.
He added that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, as PH chairman, must address voter concerns, warning that recent defeats in Johor and Negeri Sembilan could indicate greater challenges ahead.
“This threat will continue in Melaka and may persist until the upcoming GE16,” he said.
Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya political analyst Datuk Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the Negeri Sembilan results were shaped by several factors and should not be interpreted as a complete rejection of PH.
Although PH suffered a decline in seats, he noted that the coalition remained the largest bloc in terms of popular support.
"Nevertheless, it would be inaccurate to describe the result as a complete rejection of PH,” he told Scoop.
Dr Awang said the BN-PN electoral understanding was a major factor in the outcome, as it prevented competition between the two coalitions in Malay-majority constituencies.
"The arrangement allowed each coalition to concentrate resources in designated constituencies instead of competing against one another,” he said.
On the defeats of Loke and Aminuddin, Dr Awang said accountability should result in organisational improvements rather than immediate resignations.
"Accountability, however, should not automatically mean immediate resignation,” he said.
He also cautioned against interpreting MCA’s victories over DAP in Chennah and Repah as evidence of a major shift among Chinese voters.
"However, two constituency victories are not yet sufficient evidence of a broad Chinese electoral realignment,” he said.
Dr Awang described the outcome as a serious warning for PH ahead of GE16, adding that the most likely state administration would be a BN-led government with support from PN following their successful electoral cooperation.
Senior political analyst Dr Lau Zhe Wei, meanwhile, argued that the election outcome was largely shaped by ethnic voting patterns rather than solely by perceptions of government performance.
"Vote according to the ethnic line. Ethnic line meaning the Chinese will vote for Pakatan Harapan, the Malay will vote for BN slash PN,” he told Scoop.
He said the cooperation between BN and PN had improved the transfer of votes between the two coalitions compared with previous elections.
"The reason is because of the BN-PN corporations and their mutual lending of votes or mutual sharing of votes works very successfully,” he said.
Dr Lau also dismissed suggestions that Loke’s resignation would resolve DAP’s broader electoral challenges.
"So in another word, resigning does not really bring better for DAP,” he said.
Instead, he argued that DAP’s key challenge remained its difficulty in expanding support among Malay voters.
While acknowledging the significance of PH’s losses, Dr Lau said the outcome should not be attributed solely to weaknesses within the coalition.
"Very serious implications for Pakatan Harapan. But it is not because of their weakness,” he said.
He maintained that BN and PN’s ability to consolidate support was the main factor behind their success.
Looking ahead, Dr Lau said the BN-PN cooperation was likely to continue as long as both parties continued to benefit from the arrangement.
Overall, the analysts agreed that while the Negeri Sembilan election does not necessarily determine the outcome of GE16, it serves as a strong indication that PH needs to strengthen its organisation, reconnect with voters and reassess its electoral strategy to overcome recent setbacks. - August 3, 2026
The post Negeri Sembilan defeat shows PH’s Malay support challenge remains unresolved: Analysts appeared first on Scoop.
