MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) raised the El Niño Alert on Wednesday, saying it has a strong chance of developing in the third quarter of 2026.
Pagasa Administrator Nathaniel Servando told a press conference that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Neutral currently prevails over the Tropical Pacific.
“However, most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 79 percent chance of El Niño emerging in June-July-August 2026 season and is likely to persist until early 2027,” the Pagasa head told reporters.
“With this development, Pagasa’s ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Alert,” Servando said.
Characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Philippine Sea and warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP), El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO, according to the national weather bureau.
Ana Solis, Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section head, said during the same press briefing that when conditions were favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 70 percent or more within the next two to three months, an alert is issued.
“During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country,” Solis warned.
However, Solis said above-normal rainfall conditions may also be experienced over the western section of the country during the southwest monsoon (‘habagat’) season which may occur during the third quarter of the year.
Marcelino Villafuerte II, deputy administrator for research and development, said the strong impact of the phenomenon would be felt during the first quarter of 2027
Although, Pagasa did not rule it out, Villafuerte said there was still a slim possibility of ‘very strong El Niño’ or super El Niño as what others called it but climate models would only suggest that it could be a moderate to strong phenomenon.
