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SHAH ALAM – Barisan Nasional’s (BN) landslide victory in Johor was fuelled by higher voter turnout and shifts among Chinese and Pas voters.
Political analyst Arif Anwar Lokmanol Hakim said strong voter turnout across key demographics translated into broader support for BN, helping the coalition secure a commanding victory.
"Voter turnout increased significantly. Malay voter turnout was almost on par with that of a general election, while Chinese voter turnout exceeded 60 per cent, noticeably higher than in the 2022 Johor state election.
"The sharp rise in turnout translated into a solid increase in support for BN across all ethnic groups and age categories," he told Sinar Daily.
Arif said the swing in Chinese support also enabled MCA to wrest several constituencies from DAP.
"As a result, DAP lost about a quarter of its existing seats to MCA," he said.
He also said voting patterns indicated that many Pas supporters backed BN candidates instead of other Perikatan Nasional (PN) component parties in constituencies where Pas did not field candidates.
"Pas supporters appeared more willing to vote for BN candidates than for Bersatu or Malaysian Indian People's Party (MIPP). Just look at seats like Bukit Permai and Kota Iskandar, where MIPP suffered crushing defeats.
"Likewise, Pas candidates in central Johor were heavily defeated. Even Bersatu's Datuk Dr Sahruddin Jamal lost Bukit Kepong in Pagoh by a five-figure majority," he said.
Arif said PN's decision to field MIPP candidates in several Malay-majority constituencies also backfired.
"PN made a big mistake by sending MIPP candidates to three Malay-majority seats – Bukit Permai, Permas and Kota Iskandar. Pas supporters and majority Malay fence-sitters or PN voters don't want to vote for non-Malays.
"Pas did not contest seats that BN was already too strong in, but likely contested those that were more 50-50. It's not really affected because without their vote, BN still won," he said.
He said the combination of Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi's popularity and stronger Chinese backing dealt a significant blow to DAP.
"The combination of Onn Hafiz's factor and a swing in Chinese votes dealt a heavy blow to DAP. Looking at BN's vote share and winning majorities, another slight increase would make Johor resemble Kedah in terms of electoral dominance," he said.
Arif said BN's latest victory also differed from the previous Johor election because it was accompanied by a clear popular vote win.
"In the previous Johor state election, BN won despite not securing the popular vote, which partly explained its performance in GE15. This time, however, BN clearly dominated the popular vote," he said.
