.png)
SHAH ALAM - Pakatan Harapan (PH) is entering seat allocation negotiations for the upcoming Melaka state election from a relatively weaker position.
Political analysts said Barisan Nasional (BN) holds greater bargaining power following its strong electoral performances and cooperation with Perikatan Nasional (PN) in recent state polls.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said BN appeared to have the advantage ahead of the Melaka election, placing it in a position to decide which political bloc could offer it the greatest electoral benefit.
“BN appears to have the advantage heading into the Melaka state election, making it a sought-after partner among the other political blocs.
However, BN should not rely too heavily on the 2021 Melaka state election results, given the significant changes in the political landscape since then.
“The 2021 election was held shortly after the Covid-19 pandemic, while at the parliamentary level, PH currently holds three seats in Melaka and BN holds none.
“A PH-BN alliance could potentially secure more seats, as seen in Negeri Sembilan in 2023, while also helping BN retain Malay-majority seats,” she told Sinar Daily.
Despite the potential electoral benefits of a PH-BN arrangement, Syaza said grassroots resistance on both sides remained the biggest obstacle, particularly over whether BN supporters would be willing to cooperate with PH or be more receptive to PN.
She added that while PN also faced reservations among voters, PH was dealing with its own internal challenges, particularly within PKR, while Amanah appeared relatively more stable.
Meanwhile, the success of the BN-PN cooperation in Negeri Sembilan could influence BN’s calculations in Melaka.
“If the cooperation proved effective there, BN may have less reason to compromise with PH. PN is expected to favour continued cooperation with BN, while PH is exploring ways to recover from its recent electoral setbacks.
“For BN, the key consideration is which partnership offers greater electoral benefits. Working with PH could help attract non-Malay voters but risks dividing the Malay vote, while an alliance with PN could strengthen Malay support but create difficulties during seat negotiations.
“Based on the Negeri Sembilan experience, a BN-PN partnership appears more likely, although a BN-PH alliance could potentially deliver more seats collectively,” she added.
Syaza said BN choosing PH would nevertheless demonstrate that Melaka had its own political dynamics and did not necessarily have to follow the political model seen in Johor or Negeri Sembilan.
However, she stressed that DAP's position would remain an important consideration even if PKR and Amanah were prepared to cooperate with BN.
Meanwhile, political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said PH was realistically in a weak position to negotiate with BN over the number of seats it would contest.
“This is not simply because PH holds relatively fewer state seats than BN, but because recent results in Sabah, Johor and Negeri Sembilan suggest PH may struggle to retain all its existing seats.
“PH should therefore moderate its expectations, securing five seats and representation in the state executive council would already constitute a favourable arrangement.
“The demands and criticisms, particularly from party youth wings, could largely be viewed as posturing aimed at gaining leverage in seat negotiations.
“BN is unlikely to be overly concerned if PH does not contribute significantly to campaigning, while PH has more to lose if BN fails to mobilise its supporters, especially as PH’s own support base appears to be weakening,” he told Sinar Daily.
Oh said BN could potentially secure a comfortable victory in Melaka on its own, although cooperation with either PH or PN could further strengthen its prospects.
He said this gives BN greater flexibility in negotiations, allowing it to weigh its options between PH and PN. The ongoing negotiations should also be viewed against the backdrop of shifting political alliances rather than interpreted as evidence of a permanent political realignment.
“In the longer term, the most sustainable political momentum comes from each party winning as many of its own seats as possible before negotiating to form a coalition government.
“Given that political alliances can change, any agreement between PH and BN would primarily signal that the existing political arrangement remains intact for the time being, rather than indicating a permanent political realignment,” he added.
The comments come as the viability of a PH-BN electoral pact faces growing uncertainty over seat allocation and grassroots resistance.
PKR's youth wing, Angkatan Muda Keadilan has questioned BN's sincerity after the coalition indicated it intended to defend all 21 seats it won in the 2021 election, while Amanah has urged both sides to approach negotiations more openly.
PH communications director Datuk Seri Fahmi Fadzil also said Adam Adli had directly engaged with Melaka Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh on the need for realistic negotiations, acknowledging the existing 21-5 electoral reality between BN and PH.
The negotiations are unfolding after BN and PN strengthened their electoral cooperation in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
BN won 48 of 56 seats in the Johor state election, while its cooperation with PN in Negeri Sembilan resulted in the two blocs securing a two-thirds majority and ending PH's two-term administration of the state.
