In a few months, TIME will announce its annual Person of the Year. If prediction markets are to be believed, Donald Trump will be disappointed with the results.
On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican, who has won Person of the Year twice, ranks a distant third.
Making matters worse, the top two picks on both sites — New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV — have feuded with the president.
The president has had an up-and-down relationship with Mamdani, the top pick on both sites.
At various points, Trump has attacked his fellow New Yorker as a “communist,” though a relatively friendly November meeting between the two sparked speculation they might forge an unlikely “bromance.”
“I think you're going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor — the better he does, the happier I am,” Trump said at the time.
They met again in February, and Mamdani emphasized that he hoped he could work with Trump on issues such as housing, bringing a mock-up newspaper front page touting the fruits of their potential collaboration and Trump’s starring role.
Hopes for a true alliance between the two were quickly dashed, however.
By April, Trump accused Mamdani, who has pushed for a tax on luxury second-homes, of “destroying” New York with his tax policies.
In June, the Trump administration’s border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents in response to the state passing a new package of sanctuary provisions. Mamdani, meanwhile, has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration’s immigration policies.
The president’s relationship with Pope Leo has been ever more fraught.
Leo, the first American pope, infuriated the White House on multiple occasions, including for criticizing what he said were the administration’s “inhumane” immigration policies and for speaking out about Trump’s threats to wipe out the Iranian civilization.
The pope also took issue with administration claims that the Iran conflict was a righteous holy war.
“Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs,” Leo wrote on social media in April.
These comments further angered the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, himself a high-profile Catholic convert, warning the pope to “be careful” when opining on matters of theology.
President Trump, meanwhile, has accused the Pope of being “weak” on crime and “terrible” on foreign policy.
Despite the Trump administration’s strong support from Christians in the U.S., its immigration policies have driven a wedge between it and the Catholic Church, which is heavily involved in refugee resettlement work and has numerous members in the U.S. with immigrant backgrounds.
In April, for instance, the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, a charity that has provided housing and assistance to migrant children for 60 years.
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