THE House plenary will be voting on the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte for the transmission of the articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial. The Constitution requires one-third of the total number of House members to vote for its transmission. The present composition of the lower chamber is 318 members, a third of which is 106.
One lawmaker, who was fired for corruption during former president Rodrigo Duterte’s administration, has been quoted as boasting that they already have 216 votes for the conveyance of the impeachment articles to the upper chamber, adding that there will be more, which will surpass the previous 214 votes garnered in the first impeachment complaint against the vice president in the 18th Congress.
There is no doubt that the required 106 affirmative votes are in the bag, but it is highly doubtful that the number will be somewhere in the vicinity of 240 “yes” affirmations as the aforementioned infamous congressman predicted. Unless money talks and assurances of budget allocations for every congressional district in the hundreds of millions are made, and other external practical and political considerations are factored in.
The scuttlebutt is that P20 million in cold cash and P200-million allocation are for every party-list representative voting to transmit the impeachment complaint to the Senate, while P30 million in cash and P400-million budget allocation for the rest of the people’s representatives are made.
Such loose talk going around gains premium if one considers the indisputable fact that the underlying and ultimate goal of impeaching Vice President Duterte is not only to remove her as the legitimate successor to the presidency should any of the circumstances enumerated by the Constitution occur triggering a vacancy in the position of president, but also to disqualify her as a presidential candidate in 2028, which credible surveys place her as the sure winner.
Those voting for the impeachment of the second official of the land could justify their votes by saying that apart from securing the budget allocations for their districts for the much-needed projects and programs for their constituents, their “yes” votes are insignificant because the impeachment will not prosper in the Senate, anyway, as the 16 votes required for conviction is almost an impossibility, as there is absolutely no basis for the alleged impeachable grounds, and even assuming there is probable cause thereof, the evidence is absolutely wanting to sustain a conviction beyond a reasonable doubt.
Furthermore, the temperament of the people is against the impeachment and conviction. For their own political security, they will not go against the people’s will. They will not run roughshod against the ghastly and destructive winds of retribution lest they are swept by it. That the impeachment charges against the heir apparent to the presidency will be dispatched to the Senate is a foregone conclusion beyond cavil.
Senate trial, a different animal
Unlike the House of Representatives, the Senate — while its composition in the last three decades is universally viewed as lacking in intellectual depth, eloquence and conviction, except for a few — it maintained its vaunted independence and demonstrated that it cannot easily be persuaded or cowed by the power sources, to align its position on matters of national interest to that of the former. Their previous political history of alliance, friendship and admiration for former president Duterte, as well as their current declarations and responses in the matter of the former’s arrest, detention, rendition and his daughter’s impeachment, will be a huge consideration in their voting for her acquittal or conviction.
Their body language appears to indicate their opposition to the impeachment process; hence, the acquittal of Sara Duterte is a foregone conclusion as well.
Her exoneration, however, is not the end of the political calvary of the Dutertes. An absolution of Vice President Duterte by the impeachment court may even trigger a worse scenario. Since the political objective is to stop her from being the next president of the country and obliterate the Dutertes from the political landscape, whose continued presence and influence derail the political scoundrels’ hold on power, there is one effective counterfoil to a Senate acquittal — which is to abort the 2028 presidential elections.
Sara Duterte’s political foes, using the sworn enemies of the state, will create widespread havoc and violence on the population that will affect the result and credibility of the next national elections. Such circumstance will justify the use of the emergency powers under the Constitution. If that happens, Martial Law 2 under Marcos 2 will come into fruition.
So will People Power 3 necessarily follow People Power 1 and 2.
Déjà vu!
This country cannot afford another destructive political upheaval as an avenue of change. The Filipino people cannot be deprived of their sovereign right to the democratic electoral exercise of choosing the next president of the republic.
Such deprivation will push us to the brink of destruction.
Never again.
