THE Leni Robredo-Raffy Tulfo and Sara Duterte-Imee Marcos tandems are in a statistical dead heat in a hypothetical 2028 presidential and vice presidential race, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey of OCTA Research.
The survey showed Robredo and Tulfo receiving 45-percent voter preference, against 42 percent for Duterte and Marcos. Eight percent said they would vote for neither tandem, 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent refused to answer.
OCTA said the 3-percentage-point difference was not enough to establish a clear leader because the margin of error for a head-to-head comparison is wider than the margin of error for each tandem’s individual rating.
The results marked a major shift from earlier TNM surveys, which showed Duterte-Marcos leading Robredo-Tulfo by about 15 to 25 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2026, Robredo-Tulfo posted an apparent four-point lead, 44 percent to 40 percent.
The latest survey also showed a sharp geographic divide.
Robredo-Tulfo led in Balance Luzon with 61 percent and in the National Capital Region with 56 percent, while the two tandems were tied at 45 percent each in Visayas. Duterte-Marcos, meanwhile, dominated Mindanao with 90 percent.
At the regional level, Robredo-Tulfo registered its strongest support in Mimaropa at 84 percent, followed by Bicol at 71 percent, Central Luzon at 71 percent, Ilocos at 69 percent, Western Visayas at 68 percent and the Negros Island Region at 61 percent.
Duterte-Marcos posted its highest support in Caraga at 97 percent, Northern Mindanao at 92 percent, Davao Region at 91 percent, BARMM and Soccsksargen at 88 percent each, Zamboanga Peninsula at 87 percent and Central Visayas at 82 percent. OCTA cautioned that the individual regional figures were based on smaller samples and therefore had wider margins of error.
The survey also found differences by socioeconomic class. Robredo-Tulfo led among Class ABC respondents, 41 percent to 37 percent, and Class D respondents, 48 percent to 41 percent. Duterte-Marcos had a wider advantage among Class E respondents, 53 percent to 33 percent.
Age also divided the two camps. Duterte-Marcos led among respondents ages 25 to 34 and 35 to 44, both at 50 percent, and among those ages 45 to 54 at 48 percent. Robredo-Tulfo led among voters ages 18 to 24 at 52 percent and 55 to 64 at 48 percent.
Among respondents ages 65 to 74, Robredo-Tulfo had 60-percent support, rising to 76 percent among those ages 75 and above.
By locale, Robredo-Tulfo led among urban residents, 48 percent to 38 percent, while Duterte-Marcos led in rural areas, 47 percent to 40 percent. Robredo-Tulfo also led among male respondents, 48 percent to 43 percent, and female respondents, 42 percent to 41 percent.
By educational attainment, Robredo-Tulfo led among respondents with no formal or elementary education, 46 percent to 40 percent; high school graduates, 47 percent to 45 percent; and those with vocational education, 54 percent to 30 percent. Duterte-Marcos led among those with college or postgraduate education, 40 percent to 36 percent.
Compared with the first quarter, Robredo-Tulfo’s support increased by 1 percentage point, from 44 percent to 45 percent, while Duterte-Marcos rose two points, from 40 percent to 42 percent. The share of voters who were undecided or noncommittal fell from 16 percent to 13 percent.
OCTA said the race remained unsettled and that neither tandem should treat the current figures as a definitive lead.
The survey was conducted from July 4 to 11 among 1,200 registered voters interviewed face-to-face nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.
OCTA emphasized that the findings were an early stage hypothetical measure of voter preference nearly two years before the May 2028 elections and should be viewed as a snapshot of public sentiment rather than a prediction of the election outcome.
