MOST Filipinos are holding off on deciding whether Vice President Sara Duterte should be convicted or acquitted in her impeachment trial, with a majority saying they want to see the evidence first, the latest Tugon ng Masa survey of OCTA Research showed.
The survey showed that 55 percent of adult Filipinos said it was too early to decide and that they needed to see the evidence presented during the trial.
Twenty-one percent said the Senate impeachment court should acquit Duterte and clear her of the charges, while 17 percent favored her conviction and removal from office. Seven percent had no opinion or remained undecided.
The 4-percentage-point gap between the two groups that have already chosen a side indicates that neither conviction nor acquittal commands a clear public mandate, OCTA said.
The survey was conducted from July 4 to 11, during the first week of the impeachment trial, when most of the evidence and arguments had yet to be presented.
OCTA said the findings should be viewed as an early baseline of public opinion rather than a verdict on the merits of the impeachment case.
The survey sought to determine whether Filipinos already favored conviction or acquittal or believed the Senate impeachment court should decide only after evidence had been presented during the trial.
Evidence first
The preference to see the evidence first was the leading response in all four major geographic areas.
It was recorded at 56 percent in the National Capital Region, 58 percent in Balance Luzon, 53 percent in the Visayas and 48 percent in Mindanao.
Mindanao stood out for its stronger preference for acquittal, with 41 percent of respondents there favoring Duterte's clearance. This compared with 22 percent in Visayas, 21 percent in NCR, and 12 percent in Balance Luzon.
Conviction preference was highest in Balance Luzon at 22 percent, followed by 19 percent in the NCR and 17 percent each in the Visayas and Mindanao.
The evidence-first position also led across socioeconomic classes. It was favored by 64 percent of respondents in Class ABC, 54 percent in Class D and 50 percent in Class E.
Acquittal preference, meanwhile, was highest among Class E respondents at 30 percent, compared with 21 percent in Class D and 11 percent in Class ABC.
Conviction preference was 22 percent among Class ABC, 17 percent in Class D and 13 percent in Class E.
Strongest acquittal preference in Davao
The regional breakdown showed that the strongest preference for acquittal was concentrated in Mindanao.
Davao Region posted the highest acquittal preference at 61 percent. It was followed by the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao at 49 percent.
In Davao Region, only 6 percent favored conviction, while 28 percent wanted the Senate to wait for the evidence and 5 percent had no opinion.
In BARMM, 12 percent favored conviction, 23 percent wanted to see the evidence first and 16 percent were undecided.
Acquittal preference was also relatively high in Soccsksargen at 42 percent and Northern Mindanao at 36 percent, although waiting for the evidence remained the leading response in both areas.
Outside Mindanao, acquittal preference was relatively high in Eastern Visayas at 31 percent and Western Visayas at 28 percent.
OCTA cautioned that individual regional figures should be read with their smaller sample sizes in mind.
Davao Region was represented by about 60 respondents, carrying an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 13 percentage points, while BARMM had about 45 respondents and a margin of error of about plus or minus 15 percentage points.
The broader Mindanao sample of about 300 respondents had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points and provides a more statistically robust basis for comparison.
Conviction preference higher among young respondents
The evidence-first position also led across all age groups.
It was highest among respondents aged 35 to 44 at 64 percent. It was 50 percent among those aged 18 to 24, 58 percent among those aged 25 to 34, 55 percent among those aged 45 to 54, 49 percent among those aged 55 to 64, 52 percent among those aged 65 to 74, and 51 percent among those aged 75 and above.
The strongest preference for conviction was recorded among those aged 18 to 24, at 26 percent.
Conviction preference was also relatively high among those aged 55 to 64 at 24 percent and stood at 18 percent among both the 65-to-74 and 75-and-above groups.
Among respondents aged 25 to 54 who had already formed a preference between acquittal and conviction, acquittal generally led.
Among those aged 25 to 34, 26 percent favored acquittal compared with 11 percent for conviction. Among those aged 35 to 44, the figures were 19 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
The widest acquittal advantage was among those aged 45 to 54, where 28 percent favored acquittal and 15 percent favored conviction.
Among those aged 55 to 64, 24 percent favored conviction and 22 percent acquittal, while among those aged 65 to 74, conviction led 18 percent to 16 percent.
Respondents aged 75 and above had the highest level of indecision, with 28 percent expressing no opinion.
The preference to wait for the evidence was also broadly shared by urban and rural respondents, as well as men and women.
Fifty-seven percent of urban respondents wanted to see the evidence first, compared with 52 percent of rural respondents.
Among women, 56 percent preferred to wait for the evidence, compared with 53 percent of men.
Men were somewhat more likely to favor acquittal, at 25 percent, compared with 18 percent among women. Conviction preference was 19 percent among men and 16 percent among women.
By educational attainment, the evidence-first position was strongest among respondents with vocational education, at 72 percent.
It was the preferred response among those with high school education and those with college or postgraduate education, both at 57 percent.
Respondents with no formal education or elementary education were more divided: 39 percent wanted to see the evidence first, 34 percent favored acquittal, and 20 percent favored conviction.
The latest results build on OCTA's April 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, when 74 percent of adult Filipinos said they supported holding a Senate impeachment trial for Duterte.
The nationwide survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above.
The technical report identifies the respondents as registered voters, including those who were undecided on their intention to vote.
The national sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
