A HYPOTHETICAL presidential and vice presidential tandem of former vice president and now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo led the pairing of Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte and Sen. Robin Padilla, 43 percent to 39 percent, in the first OCTA Research survey testing the two combinations for the 2028 elections.
The 4-percentage-point advantage, however, masks a sharp regional divide, with Robredo and Tulfo enjoying a commanding lead in Luzon while Duterte and Padilla overwhelmingly dominate in Mindanao, according to OCTA’s third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey released on Tuesday.
The Robredo-Tulfo tandem led by 61 percent to 19 percent in Balance Luzon and 49 percent to 32 percent in Metro Manila.
In contrast, the Duterte-Padilla pairing had 81 percent in Mindanao, against just 4 percent for its rivals.
There was a close contest in Visayas, with Duterte and Padilla receiving 43 percent and Robredo and Tulfo 41 percent.
The survey also found a pronounced ethnolinguistic divide. Robredo and Tulfo lead among Tagalog or Filipino respondents, 54 percent to 24 percent, and Ilocanos, 80 percent to 8 percent.
Duterte and Padilla, meanwhile, enjoy a commanding 75 percent preference among Cebuano or Bisaya respondents, compared with 10 percent for Robredo and Tulfo.
OCTA said the national lead appears to reflect two large but opposing regional and ethnolinguistic advantages rather than a broad-based advantage for either tandem.
Despite the national lead, neither pairing commands majority support, with 18 percent of respondents saying they would vote for neither tandem or were undecided.
The results were based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipinos conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026.
OCTA reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.
The survey is the research firm’s first measurement of the hypothetical Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Padilla matchup and serves as a baseline for future surveys.
Robredo, on Nov. 9, said that she would not seek the presidency in 2028, as she intends to run for reelection.
OCTA noted that the survey was conducted more than a month before her latest statement and therefore did not capture any public reaction to it.
Duterte has not declared a presidential bid.
The survey also found that the two tandems draw support from different demographic groups.
Robredo and Tulfo led among women, 47 percent to 36 percent, while Duterte and Padilla had an advantage among men, 43 percent to 39 percent.
The Robredo-Tulfo tandem also led among urban residents, 48 percent to 36 percent, and voters aged 45 and above.
Duterte and Padilla, meanwhile, were more popular among rural respondents, 43 percent to 36 percent, and voters aged 25 to 44.
By socioeconomic class, Robredo and Tulfo led in Classes ABC, 53 percent to 29 percent, and E, 48 percent to 37 percent.
Class D, which accounts for about four in five Filipino adults, is evenly divided, with both tandems getting 41 percent.
OCTA said the 18-percent uncommitted group is concentrated in South Luzon, where 28 percent chose neither tandem or did not know whom to support. The figure rises to 36 percent among rural respondents in South Luzon.
The survey was conducted while the Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte was ongoing. Her brother, Baste, testified before the impeachment court on Sept. 29.
OCTA said it was not drawing any conclusions about the impact of the impeachment proceedings on voter preferences.
The survey results also do not reflect subsequent developments in the trial, which resumed on Nov. 9 with the defense beginning its presentation of evidence.
OCTA cautioned that the results should be treated as an early snapshot of public sentiment, not a prediction of the May 2028 election outcome.
The research firm said voter preferences could still change as presidential candidacies and political alliances take shape and as major political developments, including the outcome of the impeachment trial, unfold.
