OCTA Research’s polls on whom Filipinos will vote in the 2028 presidential election are practically a public-relations campaign to boost the image of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo — who lost by a landslide in the 2022 presidential vote — as a viable candidate against Vice President Sara Duterte.
Why do I say so? Because OCTA’s polls are unique among opinion surveys in that they ask respondents to choose only between two candidates: Sara or Leni. The press release on its website declared: “VP Sara Duterte’s numbers show a softening across the three 2026 waves, with her share easing from 46 percent in the first quarter to 43 percent in the second to 40 percent in [the] third quarter. This narrows Sara’s lead from Robredo from 11 percent to just nine percent, and then just seven.”
However, in all polls that had more than two choices for respondents to choose, Sara’s lead increased. For instance, the 43 percent who chose Sara in Pulse Asia’s February–March poll went up to 50 percent in September. The Marcos minions’ strategy of blackening Sara’s image through the Senate impeachment trial didn’t just not work; it backfired.
OCTA’s poll based on a two-candidate presidential election scenario is an unrealistic and artificial one that the polling firm used it deliberately to portray Robredo as closing in on Sara. But there has never been a two-candidate election in all of the past six national elections in our postwar period. There were seven in 1992, when Fidel Ramos won, and 10 in 1998 and 2022. The dynamics here is that, in a multi-candidate election, the other candidates chip away at the votes of the second-strongest candidate.
If Robredo withdraws from the contest, as she was reported to have said, it won’t be just Sen. Raffy Tulfo who will run against Sara. There will certainly be a few more. Who is Tulfo, after all, compared to more seasoned politicians?
There are several reasons more than two candidates run for president. First, several contenders may believe they have a real possibility of winning. In the 2010 election, for instance, Benigno Aquino III, Joseph Estrada, and Manny Villar were all considered as roughly having equal chances of winning. In 2016, Mar Roxas, Jejomar “Jojo” Binay, and Rodrigo Duterte were among the leading candidates.
Ambition, visibility and access to campaign resources may also encourage candidacies. Even weak contenders may relish being called presidential bets and securing a place in the historical record. Candidates get an excuse for asking for funds from businesses, and part of the money raised would, of course, go to their bank accounts or vaults.
While OCTA was wily enough not to point out the reasons for this, anti-Sara commentators were quick to claim that the survey showed Filipinos were starting to mistrust her because of the revelations in her Senate impeachment trial. One cartoonist — either feeble-headed or just paid for — quickly published a cartoon (see cartoon on left) to depict this fallacy.
These commentators’ — and the Marcos minions’ — template was based on the course of the candidacy of former vice president Binay. Binay, the leading candidate for the 2010 election, saw his support slide as a result of the relentless black propaganda campaign against him, which was successful, as the main media outlets then — the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippine Star, and ABS-CBN — were the very willing weapons of the Yellow Forces. Binay ended fourth in that election, in which, ironically, the future Yellow candidate Mar Roxas also lost.
Consider the results of polls made by more principled, and objective pollsters whose presidential-preference survey had more than two candidates, which is the realistic scenario:
– Pulse Asia’s Feb. 27 to March 2, 2026 poll showed Sara Duterte leading with 43 percent, while Leni Robredo got 27 percent and Raffy Tulfo, 19 percent.
– In the survey firm’s June 28 to July 3 poll, Duterte’s support rose to 49 percent; Robredo’s, 26 percent; Tulfo’s, 14 percent.
– Pulse Asia’s most recent poll, conducted from Sept. 17 to 24, had Duterte’s support rising to 50 percent, while Robredo’s remained at 26 percent and Tulfo’s fell to 12 percent. This means Sara’s lead over Robredo rose from 16 percentage points in March to 24 in September — the reverse of OCTA’s claim of her margin as narrowing.
The surveys of the two newer pollsters, WR Numero and Momentum Research, showed a similar upward trend in Sara’s support (see chart) WR Numero’s voters’ support for her rose from 31.4 percent in July 29 to Aug. 6, 2025, to 39.4 percent in June 9 to 16, 2026, to 42.4 percent in Oct. 7 to 13, 2026. Momentum’s, from 44.2 percent in July, rising to 45.8 percent in August, then dipping slightly to 44.3 percent in October.
In OCTA’s March poll, Duterte led Robredo, 46 percent to 35 percent. In July, their figures were 43 to 34, respectively. In the Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 survey, released on Nov. 4, they were 40 to 33. Thus, the lead, if one is to believe OCTA’s spin, fell from 11 points to nine and then seven. However, the OCTA figures themselves show that Robredo’s own share fell in every round, from 35 to 34 to 33.
One reason for this is the fact the number of respondents who said they were undecided rose to as high as 26 percent in the October poll. The headline about the shrinking gap gave the impression of a challenger gaining ground. On OCTA’s own numbers, the challenger was losing ground, too.
Sara’s impeachment, based on the polls, obviously failed in its objective of reducing Filipinos’ trust in her as the next president. It even backfired, as it portrayed her as a strong and competent leader, capable in fighting the minions of the most corrupt administration ever in our history, who would even weaponize the sacred process of impeachment just to prevent Filipinos from electing her in 2028.
About a year and a half to the May 2028 elections, Sara’s commanding lead is incontrovertible, and the only way to prevent her from becoming our next president is to deny the people’s will by banning her from running, through a paid-for guilty vote by the Senate impeachment court.
Facebook: Rigoberto Tiglao
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Website: www.rigobertotiglao.com
