With the Sabah state assembly now dissolved, the stage is set for the state’s 17th election, which must be held within the next 60 days.A total of 73 seats are up for grabs in the state assembly, and competition is expected to be fierce across nearly every constituency.
The dominant theme, as always, remains the enduring “Sabah for Sabahans” sentiment — a reflection of local pride and resistance towards what many perceive as excessive federal influence from the peninsula. Yet, in a twist of irony, Semenanjung-linked parties such as Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Umno are poised to play major roles in determining who governs the state next.
This time around, Sabah’s political scene looks more crowded than ever. The field is packed with a plethora of parties, personalities and alliances — some old, some new — forming a web so tangled that even the most seasoned political strategist would end up with a permanent headache trying to map it out.
The Main Contenders and Coalitions
Political marriages of convenience are nothing new in Sabah. It is a place where yesterday’s allies can turn into today’s enemies, and where opponents frequently reconcile when the political winds shift. These short-term alliances, driven more by expediency than shared ideals, have left voters weary after years of defections, reshuffles and backroom deals. The recent departure of Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) from the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition is just the latest example of this recurring pattern.
In January 2023, Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN), led by Bung Moktar Radin, attempted — but failed — to bring down Hajiji Noor’s GRS government from within. Warisan, led by Shafie Apdal, has also been no stranger to such maneuvers. The party left Pakatan Harapan (PH) after being ousted from power in the 2020 state election.
Even the victors of that 2020 election — a loose coalition of Perikatan Nasional (PN), BN, and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) — did not last long. Their alliance crumbled in tandem with the fall of Muhyiddin Yassin’s federal administration.
GRS–PH: The Current Power Bloc
At the centre of the coming contest are three main blocs: Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Warisan, with Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) acting as potential kingmakers.
GRS, led by Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, enters the election as the incumbent and the symbol of relative stability in a state long accustomed to political turbulence. Formed from a loose alliance of local parties including Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah, Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Usno, GRS has built its image around steady governance and administrative continuity. Under Hajiji’s leadership, the coalition has tried to distance itself from political theatrics, focusing instead on investor confidence, infrastructure improvement, and pragmatic cooperation with the federal government.
By contrast, Sabah Pakatan Harapan, led by Ewon Benedick of Upko and comprising PKR and DAP, is still negotiating its footing. PH held only seven seats in the previous assembly, yet it is pressing GRS for a larger share of seats this time — seeking 23 instead of the 18 offered. The move has irritated its ally and raised eyebrows across Sabah. PH’s confidence seems misplaced, considering its performance in 2020 when PKR won only two seats, DAP six, and Upko one. Its challenge lies not in organisational weakness but in perception. Many Sabahans still view PH as a Semenanjung import, disconnected from local sentiment and tone-deaf to the “Sabah for Sabahans” narrative that dominates the state’s political psyche.
Warisan and Umno: A Risky Reunion?
Then there is Warisan, the wildcard in this election. Led by Shafie Apdal, Warisan once commanded strong grassroots support as the voice of Sabah autonomy, having broken away from Umno to champion local identity. But since its fall from power in 2020, Warisan’s influence has waned. Shafie insists that the party will contest independently, yet whispers of a post-election understanding with Umno refuse to go away. Such a move would be politically risky. A Warisan–Umno reunion might give the party a path back to power but would also undermine its founding narrative as an anti-federalist movement. Many Sabahans still remember the Kinabalu Move, the failed 2023 attempt by Warisan and Sabah BN to topple Hajiji’s GRS government — an episode that left deep scars and mistrust among voters.
If current negotiations hold, GRS and PH are expected to enter the polls as partners under the unity government banner. It is a marriage of necessity rather than ideology — one designed to preserve stability and prevent a repeat of the chaos that followed the 2020 election. On the other side, Warisan could either go it alone or quietly realign with Umno and BN after the votes are counted, setting up yet another chapter in Sabah’s long tradition of unlikely coalitions.
PN: Going Solo — but Going Nowhere?
Adding to the crowded field is Perikatan Nasional (PN), led in Sabah by Ronald Kiandee, which has announced plans to go solo in the upcoming election. Kiandee said PN remains open to last-minute partnerships given Sabah’s “dynamic” political environment, but for now, the coalition intends to stand on its own.
“Last month, GRS had eight components. Now it has six,” Kiandee noted, hinting at the volatility of local alliances. “So PN has nothing against discussing partnerships with any party. Whether a pact is forged is another thing altogether.”
Despite his optimism, analysts believe PN — a coalition built largely around Bersatu and lacking a strong local base after its split with GRS — is unlikely to make much headway this time. In the 2020 election, PN’s victories came under a different banner, when Hajiji Noor still led Sabah Bersatu and STAR was part of its fold. Without those assets, PN may find itself fighting a lonely and losing battle.
The Frontrunners
For now, most analysts see GRS, under Hajiji’s leadership, as the frontrunner. The coalition benefits from incumbency, a relatively stable image, and Hajiji’s reputation for pragmatism. PH’s performance will depend largely on whether it can avoid being seen as the federal government’s overbearing partner, while Warisan remains the dark horse — capable of reshaping the outcome if it finds the right post-election partner or if public sentiment swings in its favour.
The Stakes for Sabah
Beyond the party manoeuvres and coalition drama, the real issue for Sabahans remains straightforward. They are tired of endless reshuffles, betrayals and political games. Their concerns are far more practical — fixing roads, ensuring clean water and reliable electricity, creating jobs, and bringing in investments to strengthen the state’s economy.
This election is not just about who wins the most seats. It is about which coalition can offer Sabah a sense of stability and dignity, and who can earn — and keep — the trust of Sabahans long after the ballots are counted.
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