IN a bid to remove Vice President Sara Duterte as a potential candidate in the May 2028 presidential elections, 215 members of the House impeached her last year without need of a floor debate. But the Senate, which alone has the power to try and decide all impeachment cases, failed to convene as an impeachment court, and the Supreme Court intervened to declare her impeachment proceedings null and void.
The Court held that several impeachment complaints had been filed against her, in violation of the Constitution, which provides that no impeachment proceedings shall be initiated against the same official more than once within one year.
This means she could be impeached again after the critical one-year period has passed. This date fell on Feb. 5, 2026, after which she could be impeached again by the House. Thus, her political enemies had begun recycling the old impeachment charges, determined to remove her this time. But in a surprise move, she decided to preempt her enemies by announcing that she intends to run for president come 2028. She made this announcement two years and several months before the exact date. They wanted to preempt her; she decided to preempt them instead. Under the Constitution, the election period shall commence 90 days before the day of election and end 30 days thereafter.
She is not yet a candidate, and the campaign period has not yet started, but everybody else will be looking at her as a declared “candidate,” and everything she says or does will be considered “political campaigning.” Her premature announcement will have completely transformed the political environment. How will it affect the impeachment complaints against her? We can only guess. If the 215 congressmen or at least a majority of those who had supported the last articles of impeachment remain intact, and Malacañang remains as determined as before, the House Committee on Justice could fast-track the articles of impeachment and send them to the Senate impeachment court for trial.
But there is a strong possibility that some congressmen who had originally wanted her removed from office would now reconsider their options, given the possibility that she might, after all, become the next president by 2028. No matter how close these congressmen have been to Marcos Jr. since 2022, they cannot ignore the fact that he would be ending his term without an anointed political heir or heiress and is now a lame duck president. They might stand a better chance switching over to Sara, should she ask for their support. Opportunism, after all, is not an unforgivable sin among politicians whose only desire is to be close to the sitting president.
But what happens if the new impeachment process moves faster than Sara could mobilize her reported 75 percent Mindanao support? In the botched impeachment process, the Senate’s failure to convene as an impeachment court “forthwith,” as the Constitution says — gave the Supreme Court the material time needed to intervene and declare the proceedings “unconstitutional” and void. Should Sara be impeached anew, her impeachers cannot afford to let this happen again; they will have to make sure that the Senate immediately convenes as an impeachment court and commences trial forthwith.
Does this ensure the end of Sara’s presidential bid? Not necessarily, according to some political and legal analysts. If she is impeached by the House, and she does not have enough votes to ensure her acquittal in the Senate, she could resign as vice president before her Senate trial begins, and her running for president remains unaffected. She would then escape possible conviction and removal by the Senate impeachment court — even if she has no chance of winning the support of 16 senators (this is the number needed to convict the impeached) — and turn the quasi-judicial proceedings into a purely political contest. If she retains her reported “popularity,” as claimed by the opinion polls, she would remain the candidate to beat. No one from Marcos Jr.’s camp has loomed as a possible alternative, and there is a distinct possibility that the president’s elder sister, Sen. Imee Marcos, could end up running as Sara’s vice president.
This is not the only propaganda plus for Sara that is at play here. Sara’s father, former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte, is facing trial for alleged crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court at The Hague, amidst family and supporters’ worries about his allegedly declining health. Should anything happen to the old man at this time, it could have an enormous effect on Sara’s case. Duterte supporters from various parts of the world could turn the tiniest medical bulletin on his health into a call for people to rally behind Sara’s electoral cause. This could be one of the unexpected emotional developments that could break in favor of the vice president.
fstatad@gmail.com
