Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Puma Shen has opened a 17-point lead over Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, according to a poll released on October 20, the first published survey of the 2026 Taiwan local elections campaign to show the challenger ahead in the capital.
The poll, commissioned by the Taipei-based Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association and designed by pollster Dai Li-an, put Shen at 50.3% and Chiang, of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), at 33.3%. Chiang, who is seeking a second term, responded that polls are "only a reference."
A Single Month Erased Chiang's Lead
The result marks a sharp reversal from the association's September survey, when Chiang held a narrow edge of 41.7% to Shen's 40.5%. Over the past month, Shen gained 9.8 percentage points while Chiang shed 8.4, an 18.2-point swing in the head-to-head margin.
Shen, a DPP legislator and former academic who has been placed on a wanted list by Beijing, has drawn large crowds in recent weeks in what supporters call the "Yang Wave," a reference to the last character of his Chinese name. Taipei has long been considered a KMT stronghold, which makes the swing one of the most closely watched storylines of the 2026 Taiwan local elections, scheduled for November 28.
Voters Now Rate Shen as Better Suited for the Job
The shift extends beyond vote intention. Asked whether each candidate is fit to serve as Taipei mayor, 56.6% of respondents said Shen is suitable, up 10.4 points from September, while 27.5% said he is not, down 5 points.
Chiang's numbers moved in the opposite direction. The share of respondents who consider him suitable fell 8.8 points to 41.2%, while those who consider him unsuitable rose 8.5 points to 46.8%. That leaves the incumbent with more negative than positive ratings on the question.
Chiang Says He Has Not Seen the Survey
Chiang was asked about the slide on the morning of October 20 while attending a groundbreaking blessing ceremony for the demolition and reconstruction of a Beitou building and market project. He said he had not yet seen the survey and declined to comment on the figures.
"After going through so many elections, polls are only a reference," Chiang said. "The most important thing is to keep working step by step to win the recognition of Taipei residents."
How the Xinmin Association Poll Was Conducted
The Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association funded the survey, with Dai responsible for questionnaire design and analysis. Beacon Market Research carried out telephone interviews from October 14 to 16.
Respondents were Taipei residents aged 20 or older with household registration in the city. The poll collected 1,075 valid responses, 753 by landline and 322 by mobile phone, with a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.
Other polls in the race have shown a tighter contest, and commentators on both sides have questioned how the latest numbers were weighted. With just over five weeks until polling day, the Taipei mayoral race remains the marquee contest of the 2026 Taiwan local elections.
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