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SHAH ALAM – The battle for Negeri Sembilan is shaping up to be one of the closest state elections in recent years, with competing projections pointing to an uncertain outcome as Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) vie for control of the 36-seat state assembly.
Vodus Research’s latest forecast places PH slightly ahead in the statewide popular vote and projects the coalition leading in 17 seats, just short of the 19 needed to form the next state government.
BN, however, has secured stronger leads in several constituencies, while former Bangi member of parliament Dr Ong Kian Ming has offered a contrasting assessment, predicting that a BN-PN cooperation could secure between 23 and 25 seats and form a comfortable majority.
The contrasting projections highlight the fluid nature of the contest, with the final outcome likely to depend on campaign momentum, voter turnout and results in closely fought constituencies.
The Vodus survey projected PH leading the popular vote with 42 per cent, followed by BN at 35 per cent and PN at seven per cent. Independent candidates accounted for two per cent, while 14 per cent of respondents remained undecided or declined to reveal their preference.
Based on the projection, PH is leading in 17 seats, BN in 15 and PN in two, with two additional BN-PH contests still too close to call.
Vodus Research founder Dr Kelvin Goh said BN currently held more decisive seat leads, but PH maintained a slight advantage after factoring in closely contested constituencies.
"This remains a very close race. BN has clearer leads, but PH holds a slight edge once the closely contested seats are included.
"That means the final result could still go either way, and a hung assembly cannot be ruled out.
"In the end, campaign performance, turnout and how parties manage the close-seat battleground will decide who reaches 19 seats," he said.
Goh said PH’s lead in the popular vote did not automatically translate into a legislative majority under Malaysia’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
"BN holds 15 clear leads compared with PH's nine, but PH is currently ahead in eight of the 10 closely contested seats, lifting its projected total to 17," he said.
The survey found distinct voting patterns among different communities.
Among Bumiputera voters, BN led with 41 per cent support, followed by PH at 27 per cent and PN at 25 per cent.
PH maintained a strong lead among Chinese voters with 59 per cent support, compared with BN’s 20 per cent and PN’s nine per cent.
Among other ethnic groups, PH led with 42 per cent, followed by BN at 32 per cent and PN at 21 per cent.
Despite trailing in overall vote share, BN recorded the strongest net trust rating among voters, with a score of 45 per cent, more than double PH’s 19 per cent and PN’s five per cent.
Meanwhile, Negeri Sembilan caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun registered a favourability rating of 32 per cent, below the 58 per cent recorded by Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi in Vodus Research’s earlier Johor election survey.
Cost of living emerged as the dominant issue among voters, with 55 per cent listing it among their top three concerns.
This was followed by jobs and wages (34 per cent), housing affordability (26 per cent), and corruption and governance (24 per cent).
The survey also found around 30 per cent of voters remained open to changing their minds before polling day.
While 71 per cent said they were likely or very likely to vote, only 51 per cent considered themselves certain to cast their ballots.
Travel commitments, living outside Negeri Sembilan, work obligations and inconvenience were among the main reasons cited by those at risk of not voting.
"The final outcome is likely to depend on three interconnected forces: BN retaining Malay support in the face of competition from Bersatu and other alternatives, PH preserving its advantage among Chinese and other voters while increasing turnout, and both parties managing the close-contest layer where small shifts in participation or late preferences could change the governing arithmetic," Goh said.
The survey was conducted between July 9 and July 21 among 437 registered Negeri Sembilan voters using Vodus Research’s OMTOS online survey method, with the sample weighted according to the state’s ethnic, age and gender demographics.
Ong, however, offered a different reading of the contest, predicting that BN and PN could together secure a comfortable majority after polling day.
According to a news report, he projected the two coalitions winning between 23 and 25 of the state’s 36 seats, leaving PH with between 11 and 13 seats.
Ong said the cooperation between BN and PN could significantly consolidate Malay support and reduce vote splitting that previously benefited PH.
"With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both coalitions will exceed 70 per cent, allowing candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote, which had allowed PH to win a number of seats in the 2018 state election," he said.
He highlighted that PH’s support had weakened since 2018, when it secured 53 per cent of the popular vote and won 20 state seats.
Using the 2022 general election as a benchmark, Ong said PH would have captured only 17 state seats, while BN would have won 18 and PN one.
Ong identified 10 key battleground constituencies that could ultimately decide the outcome of the election: Chennah, Klawang, Serting, Jeram Padang, Temiang, Sikamat, Ampangan, Linggi, Sri Tanjung and Repah.
He predicted BN would win Jeram Padang and Linggi, while PN would secure Klawang, Serting, Sikamat and Ampangan.
"Even if Tok Min (Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun) manages to pull off an upset by winning Linggi, BN and PN would still have 23 seats, more than enough to form a comfortable majority in the state assembly," he added.
