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JOHOR BAHRU - As campaigning enters its final lap before polling day, political analysts say the battle for Johor will ultimately be decided not by campaign rhetoric but by one crucial factor - voter turnout.
Political analyst Dr Sharmin Kutty Sivaraman said the decisive question is no longer which coalition has run the strongest campaign, but which can translate support into votes on polling day.
"The last 24 hours are critical because the outcome may depend on which coalition is more successful in getting its supporters to the ballot box," he told Sinar Daily.
Sharmin said several constituencies are expected to be closely contested, making turnout across different age groups, communities and constituencies a determining factor in the election outcome.
He said each coalition faces different priorities as campaigning enters its final stretch.
For Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), he said the focus should be on consolidating their governing coalition message while ensuring their campaign machinery effectively translates existing support into votes.
"For Perikatan Nasional (PN), this is the right time to convince voters that it is a credible governing alternative rather than simply a protest vote.
"At the same time, PN should concentrate its machinery and resources in seats where it has a realistic pathway to victory," he said.
Echoing the view, political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said parties should fully utilise the remaining campaign period to engage undecided voters, who often make up their minds at the last minute.
"The critical hours before polling day need to be fully utilised, especially in reaching fence-sitters.
"They also need to clearly explain the party's agenda and objectives," he said.
Mazlan said turnout levels could significantly influence which coalition forms the next Johor government.
He said if voter turnout remains around 60 per cent, BN is likely to retain its two-thirds majority.
"However, if turnout exceeds 75 per cent or reaches 80 per cent, PH has the opportunity to form the government with at least a simple majority," he said.
Sharmin said BN's performance would be judged not only on whether it retains power but also on the size of its majority.
"Retaining government despite significant seat losses would still be a victory, but it could raise questions about whether the coalition's long-standing dominance in Johor is beginning to weaken.
"The real test is whether BN can retain a commanding majority and demonstrate that its support base remains broad and resilient," he added.
