AGRICULTURE Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. expects farm output to contract through the first quarter (Q1) of 2027, citing damage from the southwest monsoon and the threat of El Niño.
Speaking to reporters at the third Kadiwa ng Pangulo Expo on Thursday, Tiu Laurel said monsoon damage would weigh on rice production, while the approaching dry spell could cause further losses.
However, he said El Niño’s impact this year appeared likely to be less severe than initially predicted.
“There’s no need to panic. We have enough food supply, and prices are actually stable,” Tiu Laurel said.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has projected a very strong El Niño by the year-end, continuing through the first half of 2027.
The expected contraction in rice output would follow a 2.9-percent increase in the value of agriculture and fisheries production in Q2 to P452.22 billion, from P439.66 billion a year earlier.
Output also exceeded Q1’s P437.46 billion, according to Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data released in August.
Crop production rose 1.6 percent to P248.90 billion from P244.90 billion a year earlier, accounting for 55 percent of total output.
Poultry production grew 6.3 percent to P79.84 billion from P75.07 billion, contributing 17.7 percent.
Tiu Laurel also addressed rice price increase, which helped push headline inflation to 7.2 percent in September from 6.1 percent in August.
Rice inflation accelerated to 20.3 percent from 19.4, while food inflation rose to 6.8 percent from 4.6.
Food contributed 2.5 percentage points, or 34.4 percent, to overall inflation, the PSA reported on Tuesday.
Tiu Laurel said higher palay (unmilled rice) prices had improved farmers’ earnings compared with the same period last year, when falling farmgate prices caused losses.
He attributed the increase in retail rice prices to freight costs and exchange rate movements, saying farmers generally earned good income during the latest harvest.
