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SHAH ALAM – Political analysts said the “Malay Unity” narrative, combined with dissatisfaction towards Pakatan Harapan (PH) and effective vote consolidation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), played a major role in their victory in the Negeri Sembilan state election.
They said the BN-PN cooperation enabled both parties to combine Malay support, prevent vote splitting and strengthen their position under the first-past-the-post electoral system.
This contributed to the alliance securing a two-thirds majority and ending PH’s two-term administration in the state.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said the “Malay Unity” narrative was a key factor behind the BN-PN victory, as some Malay voters had grown dissatisfied with both the state and federal PH governments, which they viewed as being less Malay-led.
“This creates a desire for a return to a government dominated by Malay parties. Also, the new cooperation between Umno and Pas was seen by these voters as fulfilling that aspiration.
“At the same time, dissatisfaction with the unity government also contributed significantly to BN-PN’s success,” he said in an interview with Sinar Daily.
Oh said the current political environment is marked by increasing polarisation, with different communities holding contrasting perceptions of the government and its reform agenda.
He explained that some Malays feel that non-Malays are gaining greater influence, while non-Malay voters believe reform efforts remain insufficient and that equality in society and governance has yet to be fully achieved.
He warned that such perceptions could risk weakening PH’s traditional non-Malay support base.
At the same time, he noted that the cooperation between BN and PN helped prevent the fragmentation of Malay votes by ensuring Umno and Pas candidates did not contest against each other in key constituencies.
“The grand ‘Malay Unity’ narrative was effective in attracting support, similar to its impact during the Johor state election.
“The strong Umno performance in Johor also provided a psychological boost ahead of the Negeri Sembilan polls, reinforcing confidence among its supporters,” he mentioned.
Oh described the outcome as a combination of BN’s “Blue Wave” and Pas’ “Green Wave”, creating what he termed an “Indigo Wave”.
He believes the strength of the alliance came from Umno providing the Malay nationalist appeal while Pas contributed the religious dimension that resonated with many Malay voters.
However, Oh said the cooperation between BN and PN at the state level did not necessarily mean both parties would maintain the same arrangement at the federal level.
“Following Umno’s victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, BN and PN may eventually compete separately at the federal level, including going head-to-head with PH in various constituencies.
“The possibility of forming a coalition government after the next general election (GE) would depend on the number of seats each party secures, with negotiations taking place based on the final electoral outcome,” he said.
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said the cooperation between BN and PN was a key factor behind the election outcome, as it enabled both parties to consolidate Malay support compared with the 2023 state election.
She noted that many close contests in the previous election were between BN and PN, but their latest cooperation allowed them to combine their support bases.
The campaign was largely shaped by the narrative of Malay unity, alongside dissatisfaction towards PH at both the state and federal levels.
“The cooperation appears to have been successful, with PN, based on unofficial results, securing more seats compared to the previous election, indicating support from BN voters.
“At the same time, BN also appears to be gaining support, suggesting that vote transferability between BN and PN was stronger compared to the previous BN-PH cooperation.
“Johor’s electoral success also likely boosted morale among BN supporters and its election machinery, helping to mobilise voters. At the same time, it may have reduced enthusiasm among some PH supporters who were already disappointed with the coalition,” she told Sinar Daily.
Regarding the Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) report on Tabung Haji, Syaza said the issue did not appear to have a significant impact on voter sentiment due to its timing and the political environment.
She noted that the report was released only two days before the election, limiting its influence on voters’ decisions.
Syaza added that the matter had also become highly politicised, with many voters having already formed their views based on their political preferences.
“As a result, the report was unlikely to significantly change the choices of those who had already decided which party to support,” she mentioned.
Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research programme director Ibrahim Suffian said the ability of BN and PN to combine their respective Malay support bases gave them a significant advantage.
He said both coalitions have substantial support among Malay voters and their cooperation allowed them to consolidate that backing by fielding single candidates in constituencies where they had agreed to contest.
“Combined with PH’s relatively weaker Malay support base and fragmented non-Malay support, this arrangement significantly strengthened BN and PN’s chances under the first-past-the-post electoral system.
“The election results indicate that Pas and BN likely maintained strong support among their respective core voter groups.
“While detailed voter data is unavailable, the outcome suggests that both parties were able to mobilise their traditional supporters effectively,” he said in an interview with Sinar Daily.
Ibrahim said voter turnout, particularly among urban and non-Malay voters, remains an important factor for PH and is often relied upon by the coalition.
However, he stressed that higher participation alone would not guarantee success unless it was accompanied by stronger Malay support.
“Research conducted before the election indicated that PH had not reached the level of more than 25 per cent Malay support despite having been in government since 2018,” he said.
The analysts said while BN-PN’s performance in Negeri Sembilan and Johor reflected a possible resurgence, it remained too early to determine whether the results represented a wider political shift ahead of future elections.
The BN-PN alliance’s victory in Negeri Sembilan secured a two-thirds majority, ending PH’s two-term administration in the state and further strengthening BN’s political momentum following its Johor victory.
