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SHAH ALAM - The upcoming Negeri Sembilan state election is increasingly being viewed as a repeat of Johor’s recent polls, with the contest effectively shaping up as a straight fight between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and what many describe as "Muafakat Nasional 2.0".
The political landscape has been shaped by the electoral cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), as well as the absence of smaller parties such as Muda and Parti Bersama Malaysia.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said the political dynamics in Negeri Sembilan closely resemble those seen in Johor, where the contest ultimately centred on PH and BN despite the participation of smaller parties.
“From my perspective, the political situation in Negeri Sembilan closely mirrors what happened in Johor. Although smaller parties contested in Johor, the election was widely viewed as a contest between PH and BN, with Pas backing BN.
“In Negeri Sembilan, the electoral understanding between BN and PN has effectively turned the contest into a straight fight, particularly as I do not think Bersatu would have made a significant impact on its own,” she said in an interview with Sinar Daily.
Syaza said cooperation between BN and PN could significantly strengthen their electoral prospects by preventing the Malay vote from being split, particularly in constituencies where three-cornered contests had previously benefited PH.
More broadly, she believes the cooperation further reinforces a political contest framed around Malay-Muslim unity on one side and the “others” on the other.
“The cooperation between BN and PN gives them a notable advantage because it avoids splitting the Malay vote. In the 2023 state election, many of the closest contests took place in Malay-majority constituencies where BN and PN competed against each other.
“With that vote split largely removed, I believe their electoral prospects have improved considerably,” she said.
She noted that despite leading the state government, PH does not currently command a simple majority, making the upcoming election particularly challenging for the coalition.
Syaza also expects the electoral outcome to vary across constituencies, with the BN-PN alliance likely to be stronger in rural and several semi-urban seats, while PH is expected to maintain its advantage in urban areas.
“The outcome is likely to vary by constituency. BN-PN appears to have the upper hand in more rural seats, while semi-urban constituencies such as Ampangan could also become more difficult for PH and may present opportunities for Pas to make gains.
“PH, however, is likely to remain relatively secure in urban constituencies such as Seremban Jaya, Nilai, Bahau, Rahang, Chuah and Lukut. Overall, I believe BN-PN enters the election with a slight advantage,” she said.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said the latest political developments have effectively transformed the Negeri Sembilan election into a two-coalition contest between PH and what many describe as “Muafakat Nasional 2.0”.
This followed Muda and Bersama’s decision not to contest, alongside the reported electoral alliance between PN and BN.
He added that the cooperation between PN and BN could strengthen the opposition’s position in Malay-majority constituencies by avoiding a split in their shared voter base, as both parties would no longer compete against each other for the same support.
“This arrangement is likely to strengthen Muafakat Nasional 2.0’s prospects in Malay-majority constituencies by preventing PN and BN from splitting the same pool of votes,” he said.
Oh said the changing electoral dynamics could further consolidate Chinese support behind DAP, strengthening the party’s position in defending its existing strongholds.
However, he noted that while DAP may have better prospects of retaining its seats, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) could face the risk of losing some constituencies. Despite these developments, Oh believes the election remains too close to call.
“Overall, despite these shifting dynamics, I still see the election as remaining closely contested,” he emphasised.
