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By Mihar Dias (C) Copyright April 2023
The question on the minds of many observers is, will UMNO quit the government led by Anwar Ibrahim now that Bossku has lost his final appeal in the Federal Court and is made to serve out the remaining of his 12 year prison sentence?
UMNO's president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Najib's strongest ally showed his wilingness to accept the decision, following the verdict on March 31 by saying that the Court's decision should be respected.
Zahid like everyone else probably knows that there is no more hope left for Najib by going through the courts. So, while resigning himself to the fact that there was no way out for his old ally, he probably took that opportunity to address Najib's supporters in UMNO to pacify them after making promises at the party's convention last year that Najib would be freed after GE15.
With the latest decision handed by the court, Najib has exhausted all legal avenues to free himself except perhaps a royal pardon which may not happen in the near future. In fact, UMNO is already making preparations to appeal to YDPA for a full pardon and immediate release of their leader.
Zahid's kind words may console Najib's supporters for the moment but this faction that switched its loyalty from the former to the current party president in the hope that the latter would be able to free Bossku may have second thoughts now after hearing the latest court's verdict. The appeal to the Agong is one clear indication that neither Zahid nor PMX could possibly release Najib in the immediate future.
MalaysiaNow, quoting an analyst at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, said it was possible that BN would withdraw its support for the coalition government led by PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim due to the fractures caused by the pro-Najib group in UMNO.
Former health minister Khairy Jamaludin (KJ) who is very well informed of this extraordinary political influence of Bossku throughout the rank and file of UMNO, said that the former prime minister is still a force to be reckoned with even from behind bars.
Najib might just decide to pull the plug on BN-UMNO partnership with PH since it does not seem to be able to secure his freedom. While Zahid may be trying to pacify supporters, rewarding them with appointments to various positions in GLCs to buy support, his gesture may not be good enough to satisfy everyone since the posts are limited in number.
So far, he is perceived to be rewarding only his own faction at the expense of those who adore Bossku.
Dissatisfaction may spread, turning rifts between Najib's supporters and Zahid's own faction into a fracture that the analyst quoted above might happen. This would be more apparent in the forthcoming state elections where Zahid needs to prove his mettle and silence his critics from within and outside the party by winning as many state seats as possible.
But pundits say this is an uphill battle for Zahid given the formidable power of the Green Wave movement from the combined forces of PAS and BERSATU without Bossku's support to mount a counter offensive.
UMNO is not likely to win as many seats as in previous polls in the coming state elections now that supporters of BERSATU will throw in their lot behind UMNO's nemesis, PAS the Islamic party that successfully launched its Green Wave movement towards the end of 2022 and is expected to win by a walkover in three Malay dominated states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
As a result, the current dissatisfaction over the big loss in GE15 under Zahid's stewardship combined with Najib's 12 year imprisonment and a poor performance in state elections would likely break the party apart and lead to Zahid's own downfall.
The question is not whether will UMNO quit the ruling coalition, but when will it happen. This is perhaps a more intriguing question to ask.
Some keen observers say, in all likelihood, it might just be after the state elections.
If UMNO were to pull out of Pakatan, then it might lead to a possible downfall of PMX and his government that Zahid is perceived to be propping up with 30 MPs from BN to make the two third majority in Parliament.
However, you may argue that the PM would still have a simple majority with what is left. But then again according to the analyst quoted by MalaysiaNow, Sarawak or Sabah might just follow in the footsteps of UMNO.
Anyway, this is all pure conjecture.
For all you know none of the above will ever happen and PMX will ride the storm and stay in office until GE16 comes along.
We'll wait and see.
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