As we are aware, Pulau Pinang was the first state to suggest deferring the state elections before the GE15. This a strategical error on the part of PH. Nurul Izzah Anwar admitted of this error in an Instagram posting. Added Nurul, "It is clear that holding both the state and general elections would produce the necessary momentum to achieve the maximum voter turnout".
Former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming made the following observations in the "Keluar Sekejap" podcast with Khairy Jamaluddin and Sharil Hamdan, “the lower turnout of Indian voters in Penang was caused by DAP's decision not to include the 75-year-old P. Ramasamy in the state's candidates list" he said . Only 43% of Indian voters in Penang came out to vote last Saturday. This was 22% lower than the 65% registered by the community in GE15.
Former Terengganu menteri besar Idris Jusoh in his Facebook postings last Sunday said "UMNO lost 100 percent (of seats) in Terengganu, Dr. Ahmad Zahid should resign". Another political figure, former law minister Zaid Ibrahim added, "dismal electoral performance reflects Dr. Zahid's unpopularity as president and members' rejection of the cooperation with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his coalition partner, the DAP". Both of these leaders have an axe to grind against Dato' Zahid Hamidi but may hv reflected sentiments felt by some of UMNO members, especially UMNO Youth.
The role of Dato' Zahid Hamidi in formation of PH Unity Government and the suspension and sacking of UMNO members who were supporters of PN created enough enemies who were willing to campaign against UMNO during the State elections. This is one of the reasons for UMNO's poor showing. Dato' Zahid Hamidi is the linchpin that is holding the PH Government in power. Weakening him means a weaker PH Government that is easy to change before the next GE. The Prime Minister is aware of this and is attempting to do everything to keep the cooperation between PH and UMNO to remain strong. Calls for Dato' Zahid's resignation are said to be driven by parties who are hoping UMNO will withdraw their support for the PH Government.
James Chin from the University of Tasmania said "UMNO appeared to have neglected MCA and MIC of the BN since becoming a party to the PH Unity government at the federal level. The effect of the neglect was reduced by the direct effort of Prime Minister to reach out to MIC and work of Indian Unity with PKR. As the attempt did not involve MCA, BN did not get many votes from the MCA Members. The absence of Chinese voters from MCA on polling day resulted in the winning of Dato' Seri Azmin Ali in Selangor with a thousand plus votes majority.
MIC Grass Root members decided to stay away from the campaigns due to the feelings that they have not seen a change in their plight after voting for PH since GE15. They were also upset that the Indian Blue Print established in 2017 was scrapped and issues such as lack of university place allocations for Indians students were happening year after year. They felt that they are approached only during elections with various promises that lacked in implementation and feel cheated.
Vote splitting by the participation of the 3rd force may not have been an intended strategy of MUDA. Afriena Shaqira of MUDA polled 1,341 votes, giving Wan Dzahanurin Ahmad's of PN, victory by a mere 167 ballots over PH. Netizens expressed their displeasure on MUDA for splitting the votes. The fact is that no party knew the impact MUDA would have on the election's outcome. It can happen again in GE16. Vote splitting can be far-reaching during GE16 as MUDA would have gained traction. MUDA shall be able to garner at least five percent to 10 percent of the total votes in most constituencies increasing the risk of PH's candidates losing.
As for the states of Kelantan and Terengganu, there were problems with the selection of candidates in UMNO. The party leadership did not have confidence in the candidates named by Terengganu and Kelantan UMNO and nominated their own instead. This caused UMNO a lot of votes and losses in these two states and the number of seats won got reduced further. Increased trust and better communications with state leaderships can avoid the repeat of a similar situation in future.
In conclusion, we can explain the poorer State Election Results for PH as of the following:
- a strategic error in deciding not to hold the state elections together with GE15;
- the exclusion of Prof Ramasamy as a candidate in Pulau Pinang;
- the suspension and sacking of senior UMNO members after GE15 who worked for PN and PAS;
- the absence of MCA's and MIC's candidates did not motivate their members to PH;
- limited effectiveness of the Indian Unity initiative as it was carried out to close to the election and Indians being unhappy
- vote splitting by MUDA, and;
- and errors in selection of candidates in Kelantan and Terenganu.
Sivanesan Mutusamy is a Financial Markets Professional, Fintech, and Startup Roll Out Professional. He holds a Masters's in Economics (Monetary Policy - Term Structure Analytics) and a degree in Economics (Hons. Analytical Economics from the University of Malaya. His interests are in various fields and current issues. He is a strong believer in Malaysia and its potential.
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