.png)
ALL is fair in love and war (Don Quixote, 1605) — a saying that has endured for centuries and remains relevant today.
Yet, in the final days of campaigning ahead of the Johor state election tomorrow, Barisan Nasional (BN), particularly MCA, has little reason to resort to desperation in its pursuit of victory.
Whispers from the southern state suggest that momentum shifted further in BN's favour during the second week of campaigning, with MCA expected to retain its four seats in Yong Peng, Paloh, Bekok and Pekan Nanas.
More significantly, the party is also tipped to reclaim the Tangkak, Jementah and Johor Jaya state seats from DAP.
The shift in support among Chinese voters, who had previously stood firmly behind DAP in urban constituencies, appears to be driven by growing fatigue with Pakatan Harapan (PH). The coalition has struggled to answer a fundamental question: What new vision does it offer Johor?
Its manifesto was released later than expected and lacked the impact of previous election manifestos led by Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli.
PH's campaign strategy, which focused heavily on attacking Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi without presenting a clear alternative, raising the issue of Datuk Seri Najib Razak's royal pardon as a campaign warning, and making a loosely organised appeal for outstation voters to return home, has instead exposed what appears to be a coalition lacking direction.
Former DAP deputy minister Dr Ong Kian Ming had earlier projected a commanding victory for BN, estimating the coalition had more than a 50 per cent chance of winning 53 of the 56 seats being contested under its most optimistic scenario.
However, after the first week of campaigning, Ong raised that projection to above 60 per cent, while forecasting Perikatan Nasional's (PN) support to fall below the 10 per cent mark. PH, meanwhile, was expected to trail only slightly behind PN.
Even under BN's most pessimistic scenario, the coalition was still projected to retain a comfortable majority with 39 seats.
Ong attributed the shift largely to PH's own campaign shortcomings, citing the absence of a compelling narrative, the failure to present a Menteri Besar candidate, and the decision by several senior PH leaders not to contest, leaving what he described as a leadership vacuum throughout the campaign.
The delayed release of PH's manifesto compared with BN's, controversies surrounding remarks by DAP minister Nga Kor Ming, and claims made by former Skudai assemblyman Marina Ibrahim over Najib's release have also been viewed as setbacks that undermined PH's campaign in Johor, almost as if the coalition was damaging its own prospects.
Independent research firm Ilham Centre, however, has offered a different assessment. Rather than predicting an outright winner, it identified the factors likely to determine the outcome in marginal seats.
Ilham Centre chief executive Hisomuddin Bakar said the group's field research found that nearly 17 per cent of voters remained undecided, with the majority comprising young and first-time voters.
This election has also seen an additional 130,184 new voters, with notable increases in Kota Iskandar, Puteri Wangsa, Tiram and Permas — constituencies that could become key battlegrounds because of the influx of new voters.
Hisomuddin's analysis also challenges the common assumption that young voters will automatically favour one political coalition over another. New voters are not a homogeneous bloc that can simply be regarded as an advantage or a threat to any party.
Their support is fragmented across the political spectrum and is more likely to be determined by individual candidates than party affiliation. At the same time, in any closely fought contest, a party's ability to mobilise its supporters to turn out on polling day could ultimately prove decisive.
Although I have observed and covered four general elections, I remain reluctant to predict who will emerge victorious on July 11. My mistaken prediction of Datuk Seri Najib Razak's victory in 2018 still lingers in my memory.
But both you and I probably already know who will be forming the next Johor state government this Saturday.
