THE impeachment debate is often presented as a choice between two camps: those who want Vice President Sara Duterte convicted and those who want her acquitted.
But the latest numbers suggest that, for most Filipinos, that is not yet the question.
In the July 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey of OCTA Research, 55 percent said they wanted to see the evidence presented during Vice President Duterte’s impeachment trial before deciding whether she should be convicted or acquitted. Twenty-one percent preferred acquittal, and 17 percent favored conviction and removal from office, while 7 percent had no opinion or remained undecided.
That makes the evidence-first group more than twice the size of either committed position. The survey shows a majority withholding judgment until the evidence has been presented and assessed.
The preference for waiting was broad. It led in all four major areas, ranging from 58 percent in Balance Luzon to 48 percent in Mindanao, and it led across socioeconomic classes. Mindanao was comparatively more inclined toward acquittal, while support for conviction was more pronounced in Balance Luzon. Even with those regional differences, waiting for the evidence remained the largest response.
That is different from saying Filipinos are disengaged from the impeachment process. Another OCTA survey, conducted at the start of the Senate trial, found that 71 percent wanted senators to base their decision on the law and evidence presented during the proceedings, compared with 21 percent who said political considerations should matter most.
The distinction is important. A survey can capture what people think at a particular point in time, but it cannot tell us what evidence would ultimately persuade them. The 55 percent, therefore, should not be treated as a permanent bloc. It is a snapshot of public judgment before the trial record has fully developed.
The same issue of attention and judgment appears in another politically charged case. In its June 2026 survey, Social Weather Stations (SWS) found that 72 percent of adult Filipinos had followed news about the International Criminal Court’s confirmation of charges against former president Rodrigo Duterte. Nineteen percent followed the case very closely; 34 percent, somewhat closely; and 19 percent, just a little.
Among those who followed very or somewhat closely, only 17 percent and 22 percent, respectively, were undecided about whether the ICC would conduct a fair trial. Among those who followed it only a little, did not follow it, or had only just heard about it, the undecided share ranged from 34 percent to 42 percent. SWS found that closer attention was associated with more decided opinions and, on balance, greater confidence that the trial would be fair.
The same SWS survey shows that Filipinos have also become considerably more optimistic about their own lives.
SWS reported that net personal optimism rose from +23 in March to +40 in June. Forty-eight percent expected their quality of life to improve over the next 12 months, while 8 percent expected it to worsen. The +40 was the highest reading since +41 in June 2025. Optimism increased in all four major areas, with Balance Luzon recording the largest increase, from +22 to +49.
Net gainers also improved from -26 in March to zero in June: 33 percent said their quality of life had become better, 34 percent said it was unchanged, and 33 percent said it had become worse. Net economic optimism likewise recovered from -14 to +10.
Yet that improvement in personal outlook did not translate into greater confidence that ordinary citizens can influence government.
In the same SWS survey, 52 percent agreed with the statement, “A person like me cannot do anything to reduce corruption in the government,” while 30 percent disagreed and 17 percent were undecided. The resulting net disagreement was -22, virtually unchanged from -23 in March. SWS said 2026 remained the worst year for this measure in the series, with the net disagreement twice as negative as any earlier reading.
Net disagreement was -10 in the Visayas, -21 in Mindanao, -23 in Balance Luzon and -37 in Metro Manila. Balance Luzon, which had the biggest jump in personal optimism, still scored -23. The figures suggest that improving personal expectations and confidence in one’s ability to affect government are measuring different things.
One caution: The corruption-efficacy question returned to the national SWS quarterly survey in March 2026 after last being asked nationally in December 2009. There are, therefore, only two comparable national readings in the current year. The June result is striking, but it should not be presented as a long-running 2026 trend.
Filipinos can be more hopeful about their own circumstances while remaining skeptical about their ability to influence government. At the same time, in the impeachment case, the largest group is asking to see the evidence before choosing an outcome.
The open question is what happens once the evidence is presented. Opinion can move as the record builds, and these surveys cannot say which arguments will move it.
For now, the largest group in the public has chosen neither verdict and is asking to see the evidence first.
Bong Ruado is a former public-sector official whose career has spanned government, politics, public policy, and the private sector. His current interests include public opinion research, governance data, and explanatory journalism, with a particular focus on interpreting political surveys beyond their headline numbers. He holds degrees in political science and law (Juris Doctor) and completed the Strategic Business Economics Program at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
